Trend

Each day to 20 October 2026, the day before this update, recalculated with the current method and corrected polls.

Party vote since 27 January

Polls
Shown then
Ticks: days this page updated

Shaded: middle 90% of runs

Numbers

Date	ACT	ACT, middle 90% of runs	Green	Green, middle 90% of runs	Labour	Labour, middle 90% of runs	National	National, middle 90% of runs	NZ First	NZ First, middle 90% of runs	Opportunity	Opportunity, middle 90% of runs	Te Pāti Māori	Te Pāti Māori, middle 90% of runs
27 Jan 2026	7.3%	4.8–10.8%	8.7%	5.7–12.5%	34.7%	26.3–42.8%	31.7%	23.8–39.9%	10.8%	7.4–15.7%	1.5%	0.8–3.0%	3.0%	1.7–5.3%
28 Jan 2026	7.3%	4.5–10.8%	8.7%	5.6–12.8%	34.7%	26.5–42.5%	31.7%	23.4–39.6%	10.8%	7.3–15.4%	1.5%	0.8–3.2%	3.0%	1.7–5.2%
29 Jan 2026	7.3%	4.7–10.9%	8.7%	5.7–12.6%	34.7%	26.2–42.7%	31.7%	23.6–39.7%	10.8%	7.1–15.3%	1.5%	0.8–3.3%	3.0%	1.6–5.2%
30 Jan 2026	7.6%	5.1–11.2%	9.2%	6.2–12.9%	34.8%	26.5–42.7%	31.5%	23.8–39.5%	10.1%	6.8–14.2%	1.5%	0.8–2.9%	3.0%	1.8–4.9%
31 Jan 2026	7.6%	5.0–10.9%	9.2%	6.2–13.2%	34.8%	26.3–42.8%	31.5%	23.9–39.1%	10.1%	6.9–14.3%	1.5%	0.8–2.9%	3.0%	1.9–5.0%
1 Feb 2026	7.6%	5.1–10.9%	9.2%	6.2–12.9%	34.8%	26.4–42.5%	31.5%	23.9–39.5%	10.1%	6.9–14.1%	1.5%	0.8–3.0%	3.0%	1.8–4.9%
2 Feb 2026	7.6%	5.0–11.0%	9.2%	6.2–13.0%	34.8%	27.1–42.9%	31.5%	23.7–38.9%	10.1%	6.8–14.3%	1.5%	0.8–3.0%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
3 Feb 2026	7.8%	5.3–11.1%	9.5%	6.5–13.2%	33.8%	26.1–41.5%	32.1%	24.5–39.7%	9.9%	6.8–13.9%	1.8%	1.1–3.3%	3.0%	1.8–4.9%
4 Feb 2026	7.8%	5.2–11.4%	9.5%	6.5–13.5%	33.8%	25.5–41.2%	32.1%	24.5–39.8%	9.9%	6.8–14.0%	1.8%	1.0–3.3%	3.0%	1.8–4.8%
5 Feb 2026	7.8%	5.2–11.3%	9.5%	6.5–13.3%	33.8%	25.6–42.2%	32.1%	24.4–40.1%	9.9%	6.8–13.8%	1.8%	1.0–3.3%	3.0%	1.8–4.9%
6 Feb 2026	7.8%	5.2–11.3%	9.5%	6.5–13.4%	33.8%	25.9–41.6%	32.1%	24.1–39.8%	9.9%	6.6–13.8%	1.8%	1.0–3.4%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
7 Feb 2026	7.8%	5.2–11.3%	9.5%	6.3–13.7%	33.8%	25.8–41.8%	32.1%	24.0–40.0%	9.9%	6.6–13.7%	1.8%	1.0–3.3%	3.0%	1.7–5.1%
8 Feb 2026	7.8%	5.1–11.1%	9.5%	6.3–13.6%	33.8%	25.2–41.8%	32.1%	24.0–40.3%	9.9%	6.6–14.1%	1.8%	1.0–3.4%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
9 Feb 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.7%	9.8%	6.8–13.9%	33.9%	26.0–41.7%	31.8%	24.4–39.5%	10.1%	7.0–13.9%	1.7%	0.9–3.0%	3.0%	1.8–4.7%
10 Feb 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.5%	9.8%	6.8–13.6%	33.9%	26.4–41.5%	31.8%	24.3–39.2%	10.1%	6.9–14.0%	1.7%	0.9–3.0%	3.0%	1.8–4.7%
11 Feb 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.6%	9.8%	6.8–13.4%	33.9%	26.1–41.4%	31.8%	24.3–39.5%	10.1%	6.9–14.2%	1.7%	0.9–3.0%	3.0%	1.8–4.7%
12 Feb 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.7%	9.8%	6.7–13.4%	33.9%	25.9–41.4%	31.8%	24.0–39.7%	10.1%	6.8–14.4%	1.7%	0.9–3.0%	3.0%	1.8–4.9%
13 Feb 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.7%	9.8%	6.5–13.8%	33.9%	26.1–41.7%	31.8%	24.1–39.4%	10.1%	6.9–14.2%	1.7%	0.9–3.1%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
14 Feb 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.7%	9.8%	6.9–13.9%	33.9%	25.9–41.7%	31.8%	24.3–39.1%	10.1%	6.8–14.2%	1.7%	0.9–3.1%	3.0%	1.8–4.8%
15 Feb 2026	7.4%	4.8–10.7%	9.8%	6.6–13.6%	33.9%	25.7–41.6%	31.8%	24.1–39.7%	10.1%	6.8–14.0%	1.7%	0.9–3.1%	3.0%	1.8–4.9%
16 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.3–11.4%	10.2%	7.0–14.2%	33.2%	25.2–41.0%	32.5%	24.6–40.1%	10.0%	6.9–13.9%	1.4%	0.8–2.6%	2.6%	1.6–4.3%
17 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.3–11.1%	10.2%	7.1–14.0%	33.2%	25.7–41.0%	32.5%	25.1–40.2%	10.0%	7.1–14.1%	1.4%	0.8–2.6%	2.6%	1.6–4.3%
18 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.4–11.4%	10.2%	6.9–14.1%	33.2%	25.6–41.3%	32.5%	24.6–39.9%	10.0%	6.9–14.0%	1.4%	0.8–2.5%	2.6%	1.6–4.3%
19 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.3–11.1%	10.2%	7.1–14.0%	33.2%	25.6–41.0%	32.5%	24.7–40.4%	10.0%	7.0–13.7%	1.4%	0.8–2.6%	2.6%	1.6–4.3%
20 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.3–11.1%	10.2%	6.9–14.0%	33.2%	25.2–40.6%	32.5%	24.8–40.1%	10.0%	6.9–14.2%	1.4%	0.8–2.7%	2.6%	1.6–4.4%
21 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.4–11.4%	10.2%	6.8–13.8%	33.2%	25.4–41.2%	32.5%	24.7–39.9%	10.0%	6.8–14.3%	1.4%	0.8–2.7%	2.6%	1.6–4.4%
22 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.2–11.4%	10.2%	6.8–14.0%	33.2%	25.3–40.9%	32.5%	24.7–40.1%	10.0%	7.0–14.3%	1.4%	0.7–2.6%	2.6%	1.6–4.5%
23 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.2–11.3%	10.2%	6.9–14.2%	33.2%	25.3–41.0%	32.5%	24.5–40.9%	10.0%	6.7–14.3%	1.4%	0.7–2.8%	2.6%	1.6–4.4%
24 Feb 2026	7.9%	5.3–11.8%	10.2%	6.9–14.3%	33.2%	24.9–40.9%	32.5%	24.3–40.2%	10.0%	6.7–14.4%	1.4%	0.7–2.8%	2.6%	1.5–4.5%
25 Feb 2026	7.5%	5.0–10.8%	10.1%	6.8–14.3%	34.1%	26.3–42.1%	31.8%	24.1–39.8%	10.1%	6.9–14.1%	1.4%	0.8–2.6%	2.6%	1.5–4.3%
26 Feb 2026	7.5%	5.0–10.9%	10.1%	6.9–14.2%	34.1%	26.2–41.9%	31.8%	23.9–39.2%	10.1%	7.0–14.4%	1.4%	0.8–2.8%	2.6%	1.6–4.5%
27 Feb 2026	7.5%	5.0–10.9%	10.1%	7.0–14.3%	34.1%	26.2–41.5%	31.8%	24.3–39.3%	10.1%	7.0–14.3%	1.4%	0.7–2.7%	2.6%	1.5–4.4%
28 Feb 2026	7.5%	5.0–10.8%	10.1%	6.9–14.2%	34.1%	26.0–42.1%	31.8%	24.1–39.8%	10.1%	6.8–14.2%	1.4%	0.7–2.8%	2.6%	1.5–4.4%
1 Mar 2026	7.5%	4.8–10.8%	10.1%	7.0–14.1%	34.1%	25.9–41.7%	31.8%	24.1–39.2%	10.1%	7.0–14.2%	1.4%	0.7–2.8%	2.6%	1.5–4.5%
2 Mar 2026	7.5%	5.0–10.8%	10.1%	6.8–14.3%	34.1%	26.1–41.9%	31.8%	23.7–39.4%	10.1%	6.8–14.1%	1.4%	0.7–2.8%	2.6%	1.5–4.5%
3 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.0–11.0%	11.0%	7.7–15.3%	33.3%	25.2–41.2%	31.6%	23.9–39.3%	10.0%	6.8–14.1%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%	2.6%	1.5–4.4%
4 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.1–11.0%	11.0%	7.4–15.3%	33.3%	25.2–41.3%	31.6%	23.7–39.5%	10.0%	6.7–13.7%	2.1%	1.2–3.7%	2.6%	1.5–4.4%
5 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.1–11.0%	11.0%	7.5–15.4%	33.3%	25.1–41.3%	31.6%	23.4–39.2%	10.0%	6.7–13.9%	2.1%	1.2–3.8%	2.6%	1.5–4.4%
6 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.1–10.8%	10.8%	7.5–14.7%	33.7%	26.1–41.4%	30.4%	23.0–37.7%	9.9%	6.8–13.7%	2.0%	1.2–3.4%	2.8%	1.8–4.4%
7 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.1–10.7%	10.8%	7.5–14.9%	33.7%	25.9–41.3%	30.4%	22.6–37.7%	9.9%	6.9–13.7%	2.0%	1.2–3.4%	2.8%	1.7–4.5%
8 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.2–10.8%	10.8%	7.4–15.0%	33.7%	25.8–41.2%	30.4%	23.3–38.0%	9.9%	6.9–13.8%	2.0%	1.2–3.5%	2.8%	1.7–4.5%
9 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.1–10.8%	10.8%	7.5–14.9%	33.7%	26.0–41.2%	30.4%	22.9–38.1%	9.9%	6.8–13.6%	2.0%	1.2–3.4%	2.8%	1.7–4.5%
10 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.0–10.6%	10.8%	7.5–14.7%	33.7%	26.0–41.4%	30.4%	22.9–37.6%	9.9%	6.8–13.8%	2.0%	1.2–3.4%	2.8%	1.6–4.6%
11 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.1–10.8%	10.8%	7.5–15.0%	33.7%	25.8–41.4%	30.4%	23.1–38.1%	9.9%	6.8–13.8%	2.0%	1.1–3.6%	2.8%	1.7–4.6%
12 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.1–10.7%	10.8%	7.5–15.0%	33.7%	25.9–41.5%	30.4%	23.1–37.7%	9.9%	6.6–13.7%	2.0%	1.1–3.5%	2.8%	1.7–4.7%
13 Mar 2026	7.6%	4.9–10.9%	10.8%	7.4–14.9%	33.7%	25.4–41.4%	30.4%	23.0–38.0%	9.9%	6.7–13.8%	2.0%	1.1–3.6%	2.8%	1.7–4.6%
14 Mar 2026	7.6%	4.9–11.0%	10.8%	7.5–15.2%	33.7%	25.8–41.6%	30.4%	22.7–38.1%	9.9%	6.8–14.0%	2.0%	1.1–3.7%	2.8%	1.6–4.7%
15 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.0–11.2%	10.8%	7.3–15.2%	33.7%	25.2–41.8%	30.4%	22.6–38.2%	9.9%	6.6–14.0%	2.0%	1.1–3.6%	2.8%	1.6–4.6%
16 Mar 2026	7.6%	4.9–11.1%	10.8%	7.2–15.0%	33.7%	25.5–41.4%	30.4%	23.0–38.4%	9.9%	6.7–13.7%	2.0%	1.1–3.8%	2.8%	1.7–4.8%
17 Mar 2026	7.6%	5.0–10.9%	10.8%	7.2–15.1%	33.7%	25.6–41.4%	30.4%	22.3–38.5%	9.9%	6.6–14.1%	2.0%	1.1–3.8%	2.8%	1.6–4.9%
18 Mar 2026	7.3%	4.9–10.6%	10.8%	7.4–15.2%	33.8%	25.9–41.5%	30.6%	23.3–38.2%	10.1%	6.9–14.0%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%	2.4%	1.4–4.0%
19 Mar 2026	7.3%	4.8–10.6%	10.8%	7.3–14.8%	33.8%	25.9–41.6%	30.6%	22.7–38.3%	10.1%	6.9–14.2%	2.1%	1.2–3.8%	2.4%	1.4–4.2%
20 Mar 2026	7.3%	5.0–10.6%	10.8%	7.4–15.0%	33.8%	25.7–41.5%	30.6%	23.4–38.4%	10.1%	7.0–14.2%	2.1%	1.2–3.7%	2.4%	1.5–4.2%
21 Mar 2026	7.3%	4.9–10.5%	10.8%	7.3–14.9%	33.8%	25.8–41.7%	30.6%	23.2–37.9%	10.1%	6.8–14.1%	2.1%	1.2–3.7%	2.4%	1.4–4.3%
22 Mar 2026	7.3%	4.8–10.7%	10.8%	7.3–15.0%	33.8%	25.7–41.6%	30.6%	23.3–38.2%	10.1%	6.8–14.2%	2.1%	1.2–3.8%	2.4%	1.4–4.3%
23 Mar 2026	7.2%	5.0–10.3%	10.6%	7.3–14.7%	34.4%	26.6–42.6%	30.8%	23.1–38.2%	10.3%	7.2–14.2%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%	2.7%	1.6–4.4%
24 Mar 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.4%	10.6%	7.4–14.5%	34.4%	26.4–42.0%	30.8%	23.4–38.2%	10.3%	7.2–14.3%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%	2.7%	1.6–4.4%
25 Mar 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.4%	10.6%	7.3–14.6%	34.4%	26.5–42.0%	30.8%	23.6–38.4%	10.3%	7.0–14.3%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%	2.7%	1.6–4.3%
26 Mar 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.3%	10.6%	7.3–14.7%	34.4%	26.2–42.2%	30.8%	23.3–38.2%	10.3%	7.0–14.3%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%	2.7%	1.6–4.4%
27 Mar 2026	7.2%	4.9–10.5%	10.6%	7.2–14.7%	34.4%	26.1–42.1%	30.8%	23.2–38.7%	10.3%	7.0–14.2%	2.1%	1.2–3.7%	2.7%	1.5–4.5%
28 Mar 2026	7.2%	4.7–10.5%	10.6%	7.1–14.9%	34.4%	26.3–42.2%	30.8%	23.1–38.6%	10.3%	7.0–14.4%	2.1%	1.2–3.8%	2.7%	1.6–4.6%
29 Mar 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.6%	10.6%	7.2–14.7%	34.4%	26.2–42.6%	30.8%	23.1–38.9%	10.3%	6.8–14.5%	2.1%	1.2–3.9%	2.7%	1.5–4.5%
30 Mar 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.6%	10.6%	7.0–14.7%	34.4%	26.2–42.5%	30.8%	22.9–37.9%	10.3%	7.0–14.6%	2.1%	1.2–3.8%	2.7%	1.6–4.5%
31 Mar 2026	7.7%	5.2–11.1%	10.7%	7.3–14.8%	34.4%	26.4–42.3%	30.0%	22.4–37.1%	10.4%	7.1–14.5%	2.5%	1.4–4.1%	2.7%	1.7–4.5%
1 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.3–11.1%	10.7%	7.3–15.0%	34.4%	26.4–42.2%	30.0%	22.3–37.0%	10.4%	7.2–14.5%	2.5%	1.4–4.2%	2.7%	1.6–4.5%
2 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.1–11.2%	10.7%	7.3–14.9%	34.4%	26.3–42.0%	30.0%	22.5–37.3%	10.4%	7.1–14.6%	2.5%	1.4–4.1%	2.7%	1.6–4.6%
3 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.0–11.4%	10.7%	7.3–14.7%	34.4%	26.0–41.8%	30.0%	22.7–38.0%	10.4%	7.0–14.7%	2.5%	1.4–4.3%	2.7%	1.6–4.7%
4 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.1–11.1%	10.7%	7.3–15.3%	34.4%	26.1–42.5%	30.0%	22.3–37.6%	10.4%	7.1–14.8%	2.5%	1.4–4.2%	2.7%	1.6–4.8%
5 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.0–11.4%	10.7%	7.3–15.2%	34.4%	25.9–41.5%	30.0%	22.7–37.6%	10.4%	7.1–14.7%	2.5%	1.4–4.3%	2.7%	1.6–4.6%
6 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.1–11.3%	10.7%	7.1–15.1%	34.4%	25.7–42.5%	30.0%	22.2–37.7%	10.4%	6.9–14.9%	2.5%	1.4–4.4%	2.7%	1.5–4.8%
7 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.9%	9.6%	6.5–13.2%	34.0%	26.0–41.6%	29.9%	22.8–37.7%	11.6%	8.0–15.8%	2.5%	1.5–4.1%	2.7%	1.6–4.3%
8 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.6–11.7%	9.6%	6.5–13.5%	34.0%	25.8–41.4%	29.9%	22.6–37.3%	11.6%	8.0–16.1%	2.5%	1.5–4.2%	2.7%	1.6–4.4%
9 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.6–11.5%	9.6%	6.7–13.4%	34.0%	26.1–41.8%	29.9%	22.6–37.2%	11.6%	8.0–15.9%	2.5%	1.5–4.1%	2.7%	1.6–4.5%
10 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.6–11.5%	9.6%	6.5–13.4%	34.0%	26.1–41.2%	29.9%	22.3–37.5%	11.6%	8.0–16.0%	2.5%	1.5–4.2%	2.7%	1.6–4.5%
11 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.8%	9.6%	6.5–13.6%	34.0%	25.7–41.4%	29.9%	22.3–37.5%	11.6%	8.0–15.8%	2.5%	1.5–4.3%	2.7%	1.6–4.6%
12 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.9%	9.6%	6.6–13.5%	34.0%	25.9–42.0%	29.9%	22.6–37.5%	11.6%	8.1–16.2%	2.5%	1.4–4.3%	2.7%	1.6–4.5%
13 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.8%	9.6%	6.4–13.6%	34.0%	25.8–41.9%	29.9%	22.5–38.0%	11.6%	7.9–16.1%	2.5%	1.4–4.5%	2.7%	1.5–4.7%
14 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.7%	9.6%	6.4–13.7%	34.0%	26.1–42.2%	29.9%	22.2–37.2%	11.6%	8.0–15.9%	2.5%	1.4–4.4%	2.7%	1.6–4.7%
15 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.5–12.1%	9.6%	6.4–13.6%	34.0%	25.8–42.1%	29.9%	22.2–37.4%	11.6%	7.8–16.3%	2.5%	1.4–4.4%	2.7%	1.5–4.7%
16 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.4–12.2%	9.6%	6.4–13.8%	34.0%	25.4–41.8%	29.9%	22.2–37.6%	11.6%	7.9–16.3%	2.5%	1.4–4.5%	2.7%	1.6–4.7%
17 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.3–12.1%	9.6%	6.3–13.6%	34.0%	25.9–42.0%	29.9%	22.2–37.6%	11.6%	7.8–16.2%	2.5%	1.4–4.5%	2.7%	1.5–4.8%
18 Apr 2026	8.2%	5.3–12.1%	9.6%	6.2–13.9%	34.0%	25.3–42.2%	29.9%	22.2–37.8%	11.6%	7.8–16.1%	2.5%	1.4–4.6%	2.7%	1.5–4.9%
19 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.1–11.1%	10.1%	6.9–14.0%	35.1%	26.8–42.9%	29.8%	22.5–37.3%	10.9%	7.5–15.1%	2.8%	1.7–4.8%	2.2%	1.3–3.8%
20 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.1–10.9%	10.1%	6.8–14.0%	35.1%	27.0–43.1%	29.8%	22.4–37.4%	10.9%	7.5–15.2%	2.8%	1.7–4.6%	2.2%	1.3–3.8%
21 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.2–11.0%	10.1%	6.9–14.3%	35.1%	27.1–42.9%	29.8%	22.3–37.4%	10.9%	7.5–15.1%	2.8%	1.7–4.6%	2.2%	1.3–3.8%
22 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.1–10.9%	10.1%	6.8–14.2%	35.1%	27.0–43.2%	29.8%	22.2–37.2%	10.9%	7.5–15.3%	2.8%	1.7–4.7%	2.2%	1.2–3.9%
23 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.1–11.1%	10.1%	7.0–14.1%	35.1%	26.7–42.7%	29.8%	22.2–37.9%	10.9%	7.4–15.3%	2.8%	1.6–4.7%	2.2%	1.2–3.9%
24 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.0–11.4%	10.1%	6.8–14.2%	35.1%	26.6–43.2%	29.8%	22.2–37.1%	10.9%	7.6–15.6%	2.8%	1.6–4.9%	2.2%	1.2–3.9%
25 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.0–11.2%	10.1%	6.8–14.5%	35.1%	26.8–43.0%	29.8%	22.1–37.3%	10.9%	7.4–15.3%	2.8%	1.6–4.9%	2.2%	1.2–4.0%
26 Apr 2026	7.7%	4.9–11.2%	10.1%	6.8–14.4%	35.1%	26.6–43.1%	29.8%	22.0–37.4%	10.9%	7.4–15.6%	2.8%	1.6–4.8%	2.2%	1.2–4.0%
27 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.0–11.3%	10.1%	6.8–14.4%	35.1%	26.5–42.8%	29.8%	22.0–37.5%	10.9%	7.3–15.6%	2.8%	1.6–5.0%	2.2%	1.2–4.1%
28 Apr 2026	7.7%	4.9–11.3%	10.1%	6.7–14.3%	35.1%	26.4–43.1%	29.8%	21.7–37.3%	10.9%	7.4–15.4%	2.8%	1.6–4.9%	2.2%	1.2–4.2%
29 Apr 2026	7.7%	5.0–11.6%	10.1%	6.7–14.6%	35.1%	26.7–42.8%	29.8%	22.0–37.2%	10.9%	7.2–15.6%	2.8%	1.6–5.1%	2.2%	1.1–4.2%
30 Apr 2026	7.7%	4.9–11.5%	10.1%	6.6–14.6%	35.1%	26.4–43.8%	29.8%	21.5–37.1%	10.9%	7.3–15.6%	2.8%	1.6–5.1%	2.2%	1.2–4.1%
1 May 2026	7.7%	4.9–11.7%	10.1%	6.5–14.7%	35.1%	25.9–43.1%	29.8%	22.1–37.8%	10.9%	7.2–15.5%	2.8%	1.5–5.1%	2.2%	1.1–4.3%
2 May 2026	7.7%	4.9–11.7%	10.1%	6.5–14.5%	35.1%	26.5–43.4%	29.8%	21.8–37.2%	10.9%	7.2–15.7%	2.8%	1.5–5.3%	2.2%	1.1–4.2%
3 May 2026	7.7%	4.8–11.6%	10.1%	6.5–14.5%	35.1%	26.0–43.4%	29.8%	21.3–38.0%	10.9%	7.2–15.7%	2.8%	1.5–5.3%	2.2%	1.1–4.4%
4 May 2026	7.7%	4.8–11.8%	10.1%	6.5–14.7%	35.1%	26.1–43.3%	29.8%	21.5–37.5%	11.0%	7.2–15.9%	2.9%	1.5–5.6%	2.2%	1.1–4.4%
5 May 2026	7.7%	4.8–12.1%	10.1%	6.4–15.1%	35.1%	26.1–42.6%	29.8%	21.7–37.6%	11.0%	7.2–15.8%	2.9%	1.5–5.5%	2.2%	1.1–4.6%
6 May 2026	7.7%	4.7–11.9%	10.1%	6.5–15.0%	35.1%	26.3–43.1%	29.8%	21.8–37.3%	11.0%	7.1–16.0%	2.9%	1.5–5.5%	2.2%	1.1–4.5%
7 May 2026	7.7%	4.7–12.1%	10.1%	6.4–15.6%	35.1%	25.9–43.5%	29.8%	21.2–37.6%	11.0%	7.0–16.4%	2.9%	1.5–5.6%	2.2%	1.0–4.6%
8 May 2026	7.7%	4.6–12.2%	10.1%	6.4–15.1%	35.1%	25.6–44.0%	29.8%	21.2–38.1%	11.0%	7.0–16.0%	2.9%	1.5–5.6%	2.2%	1.1–4.7%
9 May 2026	7.7%	4.7–12.1%	10.1%	6.4–15.1%	35.1%	25.3–43.7%	29.8%	21.2–38.0%	11.0%	6.8–16.1%	2.9%	1.4–5.7%	2.2%	1.0–4.7%
10 May 2026	7.7%	4.7–12.1%	10.1%	6.3–15.3%	35.1%	25.7–43.4%	29.8%	20.8–37.9%	11.0%	6.8–16.1%	2.9%	1.4–5.6%	2.2%	1.0–4.8%
11 May 2026	7.7%	4.5–12.1%	10.0%	6.0–15.3%	35.3%	25.7–43.4%	29.7%	20.9–37.7%	11.0%	6.7–16.8%	2.9%	1.4–6.2%	2.2%	0.9–5.1%
12 May 2026	7.6%	4.9–11.2%	10.0%	6.7–14.2%	33.4%	25.4–41.1%	29.2%	21.8–36.8%	11.4%	7.8–15.9%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%	3.2%	2.0–5.3%
13 May 2026	7.6%	4.8–10.8%	10.0%	6.7–14.4%	33.4%	25.3–41.1%	29.2%	21.6–36.6%	11.4%	7.7–16.0%	3.0%	1.8–5.2%	3.2%	1.9–5.3%
14 May 2026	7.3%	5.0–10.4%	9.6%	6.7–13.3%	34.0%	26.3–41.9%	28.9%	21.3–36.3%	12.2%	8.4–16.4%	3.0%	1.8–4.9%	2.8%	1.7–4.6%
15 May 2026	7.3%	4.9–10.5%	9.6%	6.5–13.6%	34.0%	26.3–41.7%	28.9%	21.6–36.4%	12.2%	8.5–16.7%	3.0%	1.8–4.8%	2.8%	1.7–4.6%
16 May 2026	7.3%	5.0–10.8%	9.6%	6.6–13.5%	34.0%	26.0–41.2%	28.9%	22.2–36.2%	12.2%	8.6–16.7%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%	2.8%	1.7–4.7%
17 May 2026	7.3%	4.9–10.6%	9.6%	6.4–13.3%	34.0%	26.0–41.5%	28.9%	21.6–36.3%	12.2%	8.4–16.8%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%	2.8%	1.7–4.7%
18 May 2026	7.3%	4.9–10.5%	9.6%	6.5–13.4%	34.0%	25.8–41.5%	28.9%	21.7–36.5%	12.2%	8.5–16.7%	3.0%	1.8–4.9%	2.8%	1.7–4.6%
19 May 2026	7.3%	4.9–10.7%	9.6%	6.5–13.5%	34.0%	26.2–41.8%	28.9%	21.6–36.3%	12.2%	8.5–16.9%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%	2.8%	1.6–4.6%
20 May 2026	7.3%	4.8–10.7%	9.6%	6.4–13.7%	34.0%	26.2–41.4%	28.9%	21.7–36.7%	12.2%	8.3–16.6%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%	2.8%	1.6–4.6%
21 May 2026	7.3%	4.9–11.0%	9.6%	6.5–13.7%	34.0%	26.2–41.7%	28.9%	21.4–36.0%	12.2%	8.3–16.8%	3.0%	1.8–5.0%	2.8%	1.6–4.8%
22 May 2026	7.3%	4.8–10.7%	9.6%	6.4–13.7%	34.0%	26.0–42.5%	28.9%	21.1–36.5%	12.2%	8.2–17.1%	3.0%	1.7–5.2%	2.8%	1.6–4.8%
23 May 2026	7.3%	4.8–10.7%	9.6%	6.3–13.8%	34.0%	25.7–41.7%	28.9%	21.6–36.2%	12.2%	8.2–17.0%	3.0%	1.8–5.3%	2.8%	1.6–4.9%
24 May 2026	7.3%	4.6–10.7%	9.6%	6.5–13.5%	34.0%	25.9–41.8%	28.9%	21.4–36.3%	12.2%	8.2–17.2%	3.0%	1.7–5.2%	2.8%	1.5–4.9%
25 May 2026	7.3%	4.7–10.9%	9.6%	6.3–13.8%	34.0%	25.5–41.6%	28.9%	21.4–36.0%	12.2%	8.3–17.0%	3.0%	1.7–5.3%	2.8%	1.6–5.1%
26 May 2026	7.3%	4.7–10.9%	9.6%	6.4–13.7%	34.0%	25.6–41.9%	28.9%	21.2–36.5%	12.2%	8.3–16.9%	3.0%	1.7–5.2%	2.8%	1.6–5.0%
27 May 2026	7.3%	4.7–11.1%	9.6%	6.4–14.3%	34.0%	25.4–41.7%	28.9%	20.8–36.4%	12.2%	8.0–17.2%	3.0%	1.7–5.3%	2.8%	1.5–5.0%
28 May 2026	7.3%	4.5–11.0%	9.6%	6.3–14.1%	34.0%	25.4–41.9%	28.9%	21.2–36.7%	12.2%	8.1–17.3%	3.0%	1.6–5.4%	2.8%	1.6–5.3%
29 May 2026	7.3%	4.5–11.3%	9.6%	6.3–14.3%	34.0%	25.3–42.1%	28.9%	20.7–36.4%	12.2%	7.9–17.3%	3.0%	1.7–5.4%	2.8%	1.5–5.3%
30 May 2026	7.3%	4.5–11.2%	9.6%	6.0–14.2%	34.0%	25.2–42.3%	28.9%	20.8–36.4%	12.2%	8.1–17.1%	3.0%	1.6–5.7%	2.8%	1.5–5.2%
31 May 2026	7.3%	4.4–11.1%	9.6%	6.1–14.0%	34.0%	25.8–42.1%	28.9%	21.2–36.4%	12.2%	7.9–17.7%	3.0%	1.6–5.4%	2.8%	1.5–5.4%
1 Jun 2026	7.3%	4.5–11.4%	9.6%	6.0–14.3%	34.0%	25.1–42.4%	28.9%	20.6–36.6%	12.2%	8.0–17.6%	3.0%	1.6–5.8%	2.8%	1.5–5.4%
2 Jun 2026	8.1%	5.3–12.1%	10.4%	6.8–15.1%	31.8%	23.4–39.6%	29.3%	21.6–37.1%	11.8%	7.9–16.7%	4.2%	2.4–6.9%	2.7%	1.5–4.9%
3 Jun 2026	8.1%	5.4–11.9%	10.4%	6.8–15.1%	31.8%	23.2–39.1%	29.3%	21.5–37.4%	11.8%	7.8–16.5%	4.2%	2.5–6.9%	2.7%	1.4–4.9%
4 Jun 2026	8.1%	5.1–12.1%	10.4%	6.7–15.2%	31.8%	23.5–39.6%	29.3%	21.5–36.8%	11.8%	7.8–17.0%	4.2%	2.4–6.9%	2.7%	1.4–5.0%
5 Jun 2026	8.1%	5.1–12.3%	10.4%	6.8–15.1%	31.8%	23.4–40.1%	29.3%	21.1–37.4%	11.8%	7.7–16.7%	4.2%	2.4–6.9%	2.7%	1.4–5.1%
6 Jun 2026	8.1%	5.1–12.2%	10.4%	6.7–15.2%	31.7%	22.8–39.2%	29.3%	21.4–37.5%	11.8%	7.8–17.1%	4.2%	2.4–7.1%	2.7%	1.4–5.3%
7 Jun 2026	8.1%	5.0–12.4%	10.4%	6.5–15.1%	31.7%	23.0–39.7%	29.4%	21.4–37.6%	11.9%	7.7–16.9%	4.2%	2.3–7.3%	2.7%	1.4–5.1%
8 Jun 2026	8.1%	5.0–12.5%	10.4%	6.8–15.3%	31.7%	23.0–39.4%	29.4%	21.0–37.0%	11.9%	7.9–17.2%	4.2%	2.3–7.3%	2.7%	1.4–5.3%
9 Jun 2026	8.1%	4.8–12.4%	10.4%	6.6–15.5%	31.7%	22.8–39.8%	29.4%	21.2–38.0%	11.9%	7.6–17.0%	4.2%	2.2–7.3%	2.7%	1.3–5.3%
10 Jun 2026	8.1%	4.9–12.6%	10.4%	6.7–15.5%	31.7%	23.1–39.6%	29.4%	20.9–37.5%	11.9%	7.7–17.3%	4.2%	2.2–7.3%	2.7%	1.3–5.5%
11 Jun 2026	8.1%	4.8–12.7%	10.4%	6.5–15.8%	31.7%	22.7–40.4%	29.4%	20.6–37.5%	11.9%	7.5–17.6%	4.2%	2.3–7.5%	2.7%	1.3–5.6%
12 Jun 2026	7.9%	5.3–11.6%	11.0%	7.5–15.3%	32.0%	23.9–39.2%	29.8%	22.1–37.0%	11.6%	8.0–16.2%	3.6%	2.1–5.9%	2.9%	1.7–5.1%
13 Jun 2026	7.9%	5.3–11.7%	11.0%	7.5–15.7%	32.0%	24.0–39.4%	29.8%	22.0–36.9%	11.6%	7.8–16.1%	3.6%	2.1–5.9%	2.9%	1.7–5.0%
14 Jun 2026	7.9%	5.1–11.7%	11.0%	7.4–15.3%	32.0%	24.3–38.8%	29.8%	22.3–37.2%	11.6%	7.9–16.3%	3.6%	2.1–6.0%	2.9%	1.7–5.1%
15 Jun 2026	7.9%	5.2–11.4%	10.6%	7.3–14.6%	32.7%	24.9–40.4%	29.0%	21.7–36.3%	11.6%	8.0–16.2%	3.6%	2.2–5.7%	2.6%	1.5–4.3%
16 Jun 2026	7.9%	5.3–11.2%	10.6%	7.4–14.9%	32.7%	24.7–40.2%	29.0%	21.9–36.3%	11.6%	8.0–16.0%	3.6%	2.2–5.7%	2.6%	1.5–4.3%
17 Jun 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.5%	11.2%	7.8–15.1%	32.9%	25.3–40.6%	28.9%	21.6–35.9%	11.7%	8.2–16.0%	3.4%	2.1–5.4%	2.6%	1.6–4.1%
18 Jun 2026	7.4%	5.1–10.5%	11.2%	7.8–15.2%	32.9%	25.4–40.5%	28.9%	21.7–36.0%	11.7%	8.2–16.0%	3.4%	2.1–5.4%	2.6%	1.5–4.1%
19 Jun 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.5%	11.2%	7.8–15.3%	32.9%	25.2–40.2%	28.9%	21.9–36.7%	11.7%	8.2–15.9%	3.4%	2.2–5.4%	2.6%	1.6–4.2%
20 Jun 2026	7.4%	5.1–10.6%	11.2%	7.8–15.6%	32.9%	25.2–40.4%	28.9%	21.5–35.9%	11.7%	8.1–15.9%	3.4%	2.1–5.3%	2.6%	1.6–4.3%
21 Jun 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.4%	11.2%	7.8–15.2%	32.9%	24.9–40.4%	28.9%	21.7–36.3%	11.7%	8.1–15.9%	3.4%	2.1–5.6%	2.6%	1.5–4.2%
22 Jun 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.5%	11.2%	7.7–15.5%	32.9%	25.0–40.3%	28.9%	21.7–36.1%	11.7%	8.1–16.1%	3.4%	2.1–5.5%	2.6%	1.6–4.3%
23 Jun 2026	7.0%	4.8–9.9%	11.7%	8.2–16.1%	32.7%	25.0–40.2%	29.0%	21.9–36.4%	11.5%	8.2–15.6%	3.9%	2.5–5.9%	2.4%	1.5–3.8%
24 Jun 2026	7.0%	4.8–10.0%	11.7%	8.2–15.8%	32.7%	25.3–40.4%	29.0%	22.1–36.1%	11.5%	8.1–15.8%	3.9%	2.5–5.9%	2.4%	1.4–3.8%
25 Jun 2026	7.0%	4.7–9.9%	11.7%	8.1–16.1%	32.7%	25.3–40.5%	29.0%	22.0–36.5%	11.5%	8.0–15.5%	3.9%	2.5–5.9%	2.4%	1.4–3.9%
26 Jun 2026	7.0%	4.7–10.2%	11.7%	8.2–16.1%	32.7%	25.0–39.9%	29.0%	21.9–36.8%	11.5%	7.9–15.7%	3.9%	2.5–5.9%	2.4%	1.4–3.9%
27 Jun 2026	7.0%	4.7–10.0%	11.7%	8.1–16.1%	32.7%	25.2–40.2%	29.0%	21.9–36.1%	11.5%	8.0–15.9%	3.9%	2.4–5.8%	2.4%	1.4–4.0%
28 Jun 2026	7.0%	4.7–10.3%	11.7%	8.1–16.3%	32.7%	24.8–40.3%	29.0%	22.2–36.3%	11.5%	8.1–15.7%	3.9%	2.5–5.9%	2.4%	1.4–4.0%
29 Jun 2026	7.0%	4.7–10.2%	11.7%	8.1–16.0%	32.7%	25.1–40.1%	29.0%	21.9–36.1%	11.5%	8.1–15.9%	3.9%	2.5–6.1%	2.4%	1.4–4.0%
30 Jun 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.6%	12.0%	8.3–16.4%	31.6%	24.0–38.9%	29.3%	22.3–36.6%	11.3%	7.9–15.5%	4.4%	2.8–6.6%	2.5%	1.4–4.1%
1 Jul 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.5%	12.0%	8.4–16.2%	31.5%	23.9–38.9%	29.3%	22.1–36.4%	11.3%	7.8–15.8%	4.4%	2.8–6.7%	2.5%	1.5–4.1%
2 Jul 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.6%	12.0%	8.4–16.6%	31.5%	23.8–39.1%	29.3%	21.8–36.2%	11.3%	7.9–15.6%	4.4%	2.8–6.9%	2.5%	1.4–4.1%
3 Jul 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.7%	12.0%	8.2–16.3%	31.5%	23.9–39.0%	29.3%	21.8–36.5%	11.3%	8.0–15.7%	4.4%	2.8–6.8%	2.5%	1.5–4.1%
4 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.5%	12.0%	8.3–16.8%	31.5%	23.8–38.8%	29.3%	22.1–36.3%	11.3%	7.8–15.9%	4.4%	2.8–6.8%	2.5%	1.4–4.2%
5 Jul 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.7%	12.0%	8.3–16.3%	31.5%	23.8–39.1%	29.3%	22.4–36.8%	11.3%	7.6–15.6%	4.4%	2.7–6.8%	2.5%	1.4–4.2%
6 Jul 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.8%	12.0%	8.2–16.4%	31.5%	24.0–39.3%	29.3%	21.6–36.5%	11.3%	7.7–15.7%	4.4%	2.8–6.9%	2.5%	1.4–4.2%
7 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.9–11.1%	12.0%	8.1–16.6%	31.5%	23.5–39.2%	29.3%	21.6–36.9%	11.3%	7.6–15.8%	4.4%	2.7–7.1%	2.5%	1.4–4.4%
8 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.8–10.8%	12.0%	8.3–16.6%	31.5%	23.4–39.0%	29.3%	21.8–37.4%	11.3%	7.5–15.8%	4.4%	2.7–7.0%	2.5%	1.4–4.4%
9 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.4%	11.4%	7.9–15.6%	31.5%	24.0–39.3%	29.7%	22.5–37.1%	11.1%	7.7–15.1%	3.9%	2.5–6.0%	2.8%	1.7–4.5%
10 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.2%	11.4%	7.9–15.9%	31.5%	24.0–38.9%	29.7%	22.4–36.9%	11.1%	7.8–15.2%	3.9%	2.5–6.1%	2.8%	1.8–4.5%
11 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.9–10.5%	11.4%	8.0–15.8%	31.5%	24.1–39.0%	29.7%	22.6–37.1%	11.1%	7.8–15.6%	3.9%	2.5–6.2%	2.8%	1.7–4.5%
12 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.7–10.5%	11.4%	7.9–15.8%	31.5%	23.8–38.6%	29.8%	22.7–37.1%	11.1%	7.7–15.2%	3.9%	2.4–6.1%	2.8%	1.7–4.6%
13 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.4%	11.4%	7.8–15.4%	31.5%	23.8–39.0%	29.8%	22.6–37.1%	11.1%	7.7–15.5%	3.9%	2.5–6.2%	2.8%	1.7–4.7%
14 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.6%	11.1%	7.8–15.1%	32.2%	24.7–39.8%	29.5%	22.5–37.0%	11.2%	7.9–15.3%	4.2%	2.7–6.2%	2.7%	1.6–4.3%
15 Jul 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.4%	11.1%	7.7–15.2%	32.2%	24.4–39.7%	29.5%	22.3–37.2%	11.2%	7.9–15.5%	4.2%	2.8–6.3%	2.7%	1.6–4.4%
16 Jul 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.5%	11.1%	7.6–15.2%	32.2%	24.6–39.5%	29.5%	22.4–36.6%	11.2%	7.8–15.4%	4.2%	2.6–6.4%	2.7%	1.6–4.4%
17 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.8%	11.1%	7.7–15.3%	32.2%	24.8–39.3%	29.5%	22.3–36.7%	11.2%	7.7–15.5%	4.2%	2.7–6.5%	2.7%	1.6–4.4%
18 Jul 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.5%	11.1%	7.7–15.2%	32.2%	24.6–40.1%	29.5%	22.1–36.8%	11.2%	7.9–15.4%	4.2%	2.6–6.4%	2.7%	1.6–4.5%
19 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.9%	11.1%	7.6–15.2%	32.2%	24.3–40.1%	29.5%	22.0–37.3%	11.2%	7.8–15.6%	4.2%	2.7–6.6%	2.7%	1.6–4.5%
20 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.6%	11.1%	7.6–15.1%	32.2%	24.7–40.0%	29.5%	22.4–36.7%	11.2%	7.7–15.6%	4.2%	2.6–6.6%	2.7%	1.6–4.4%
21 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.6%	11.1%	7.5–15.5%	32.2%	24.4–40.0%	29.5%	21.9–36.9%	11.2%	7.8–15.6%	4.2%	2.6–6.8%	2.7%	1.6–4.6%
22 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.8–10.8%	11.1%	7.5–15.4%	32.2%	24.0–39.8%	29.5%	21.9–37.0%	11.2%	7.5–16.2%	4.2%	2.6–6.8%	2.7%	1.6–4.5%
23 Jul 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.7%	11.1%	7.5–15.4%	32.2%	24.2–40.0%	29.5%	21.9–37.2%	11.2%	7.7–15.9%	4.2%	2.5–6.7%	2.7%	1.5–4.6%
24 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.9–10.3%	10.4%	7.2–14.3%	32.3%	24.7–39.9%	29.8%	22.5–37.4%	11.4%	8.0–15.6%	4.3%	2.8–6.6%	2.8%	1.7–4.5%
25 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.7–10.6%	10.4%	7.1–14.4%	32.3%	24.9–40.0%	29.8%	22.4–36.7%	11.4%	7.9–15.8%	4.3%	2.8–6.5%	2.8%	1.6–4.6%
26 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.9–10.6%	10.4%	7.1–14.5%	32.3%	24.5–40.1%	29.8%	22.4–37.2%	11.4%	7.8–15.7%	4.3%	2.7–6.7%	2.8%	1.6–4.5%
27 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.9–10.5%	10.4%	7.2–14.6%	32.3%	24.3–39.8%	29.8%	22.4–37.3%	11.4%	7.9–15.9%	4.3%	2.7–6.7%	2.8%	1.6–4.5%
28 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.6–10.5%	10.4%	7.1–14.4%	32.3%	24.7–40.1%	29.8%	22.5–37.5%	11.4%	7.9–15.8%	4.3%	2.6–6.7%	2.8%	1.6–4.6%
29 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.8–10.6%	10.4%	7.1–14.5%	32.3%	24.8–39.7%	29.8%	22.1–37.0%	11.4%	7.9–15.6%	4.3%	2.7–6.8%	2.8%	1.6–4.6%
30 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.7–10.5%	10.4%	7.1–14.7%	32.3%	24.0–39.5%	29.8%	22.2–37.5%	11.4%	7.8–15.9%	4.3%	2.7–6.8%	2.8%	1.6–4.7%
31 Jul 2026	7.2%	4.7–10.6%	10.4%	6.9–14.6%	32.3%	24.5–39.7%	29.8%	22.1–37.4%	11.4%	7.7–15.7%	4.3%	2.6–6.9%	2.8%	1.6–4.8%
1 Aug 2026	7.2%	4.7–10.7%	10.4%	7.0–14.7%	32.3%	24.6–40.0%	29.8%	22.4–37.6%	11.4%	7.5–15.7%	4.3%	2.6–6.9%	2.8%	1.6–4.7%
2 Aug 2026	7.2%	4.7–10.6%	10.4%	7.0–14.9%	32.3%	24.5–40.1%	29.8%	22.4–37.3%	11.4%	7.7–16.1%	4.3%	2.6–7.0%	2.8%	1.5–4.8%
3 Aug 2026	7.2%	4.7–10.7%	10.4%	6.8–14.8%	32.3%	24.4–40.4%	29.8%	22.2–37.4%	11.4%	7.6–16.0%	4.3%	2.6–6.8%	2.8%	1.6–4.8%
4 Aug 2026	7.5%	4.9–11.0%	11.1%	7.6–15.3%	30.7%	23.1–38.1%	30.3%	22.6–37.9%	10.7%	7.4–15.1%	5.2%	3.3–8.1%	2.6%	1.5–4.4%
5 Aug 2026	7.5%	5.0–11.1%	11.1%	7.6–15.8%	30.7%	23.0–38.1%	30.3%	22.9–37.7%	10.7%	7.3–15.0%	5.2%	3.3–8.1%	2.6%	1.5–4.5%
6 Aug 2026	7.5%	4.9–10.9%	11.1%	7.5–15.4%	30.7%	23.3–38.5%	30.3%	22.5–37.7%	10.7%	7.2–14.9%	5.2%	3.2–8.3%	2.6%	1.5–4.6%
7 Aug 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.6%	10.7%	7.5–14.9%	29.5%	22.3–36.8%	30.4%	23.1–37.7%	10.1%	6.8–14.0%	5.5%	3.6–8.2%	2.2%	1.3–3.7%
8 Aug 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.6%	10.7%	7.5–14.9%	29.5%	21.7–36.9%	30.4%	23.3–37.9%	10.1%	6.8–14.0%	5.5%	3.5–8.3%	2.2%	1.3–3.7%
9 Aug 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.6%	10.6%	7.4–14.8%	29.5%	22.0–37.0%	30.4%	22.9–37.9%	10.1%	7.1–14.1%	5.5%	3.6–8.2%	2.2%	1.2–3.6%
10 Aug 2026	7.4%	5.0–10.7%	10.6%	7.3–14.9%	29.5%	22.0–36.5%	30.4%	22.9–38.0%	10.1%	6.8–14.1%	5.5%	3.6–8.3%	2.2%	1.3–3.7%
11 Aug 2026	7.4%	4.9–10.8%	10.6%	7.5–14.6%	29.5%	22.1–37.1%	30.4%	22.7–37.4%	10.1%	6.9–14.1%	5.5%	3.5–8.2%	2.2%	1.2–3.7%
12 Aug 2026	8.0%	5.6–11.2%	11.1%	7.7–15.4%	29.7%	22.6–37.1%	30.0%	22.6–37.2%	9.3%	6.6–13.0%	6.4%	4.3–9.3%	1.8%	1.1–3.0%
13 Aug 2026	8.0%	5.4–11.3%	11.1%	7.9–15.1%	29.7%	22.4–37.1%	30.0%	22.9–37.4%	9.3%	6.5–12.9%	6.4%	4.3–9.3%	1.8%	1.0–3.0%
14 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.6%	10.3%	7.3–14.1%	30.5%	23.3–37.7%	29.5%	22.6–36.6%	10.1%	7.2–14.0%	6.1%	4.2–8.7%	2.1%	1.3–3.3%
15 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.6%	10.3%	7.3–14.1%	30.5%	23.5–38.1%	29.5%	22.5–36.6%	10.1%	7.1–14.0%	6.1%	4.1–8.6%	2.1%	1.2–3.4%
16 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.9%	10.3%	7.3–14.1%	30.5%	23.3–37.9%	29.5%	22.5–36.5%	10.1%	7.1–13.9%	6.1%	4.1–8.7%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
17 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.8%	10.3%	7.0–14.2%	30.5%	23.1–38.0%	29.5%	22.5–36.4%	10.1%	7.1–14.1%	6.1%	4.0–8.8%	2.1%	1.3–3.4%
18 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–11.1%	10.3%	7.3–14.3%	30.5%	23.4–37.8%	29.5%	22.5–36.6%	10.1%	7.0–14.0%	6.1%	4.1–8.8%	2.1%	1.2–3.4%
19 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.2–10.9%	10.3%	7.2–14.2%	30.5%	23.3–37.9%	29.5%	22.2–36.6%	10.1%	7.1–14.1%	6.1%	4.0–8.6%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
20 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.2–10.9%	10.3%	7.3–14.2%	30.5%	22.9–37.6%	29.5%	22.2–36.5%	10.1%	7.0–14.3%	6.1%	4.0–8.8%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
21 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.2–10.9%	10.3%	7.0–14.4%	30.5%	23.5–37.8%	29.5%	22.2–36.9%	10.1%	7.0–14.0%	6.1%	4.0–8.8%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
22 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.2–10.9%	10.3%	7.1–14.5%	30.5%	22.9–37.9%	29.5%	22.6–36.9%	10.1%	6.9–14.0%	6.1%	4.0–8.9%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
23 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.2–11.1%	10.3%	7.3–14.3%	30.5%	23.1–38.1%	29.5%	22.1–37.0%	10.1%	6.8–13.9%	6.1%	4.0–8.9%	2.1%	1.1–3.7%
24 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.8%	10.3%	7.3–14.3%	31.1%	23.9–38.5%	29.5%	22.3–37.0%	10.7%	7.6–14.7%	5.9%	3.9–8.6%	2.3%	1.5–3.8%
25 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.9%	10.3%	7.2–14.3%	31.1%	24.0–38.1%	29.5%	22.3–36.7%	10.7%	7.4–15.1%	5.9%	3.9–8.6%	2.3%	1.4–3.7%
26 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.9%	10.3%	7.3–14.1%	31.1%	23.7–38.7%	29.5%	22.4–36.9%	10.7%	7.5–14.7%	5.9%	3.9–8.5%	2.3%	1.4–3.9%
27 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.9%	10.3%	7.1–14.4%	31.1%	23.8–38.6%	29.5%	22.3–36.7%	10.7%	7.4–14.7%	5.9%	4.0–8.7%	2.3%	1.4–3.9%
28 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.2–11.0%	10.3%	7.2–14.3%	31.1%	23.8–38.6%	29.5%	22.3–37.2%	10.7%	7.4–14.7%	5.9%	3.9–8.5%	2.3%	1.4–4.0%
29 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–11.0%	10.3%	7.1–14.2%	31.1%	23.5–39.0%	29.5%	22.0–36.4%	10.7%	7.3–15.0%	5.9%	3.9–8.5%	2.3%	1.4–3.9%
30 Aug 2026	7.7%	5.3–10.9%	10.3%	7.1–14.7%	31.1%	23.5–38.7%	29.5%	22.2–36.6%	10.7%	7.3–14.8%	5.9%	3.9–8.8%	2.3%	1.3–3.9%
31 Aug 2026	8.2%	5.6–11.6%	11.2%	7.8–15.7%	30.0%	22.7–37.3%	29.8%	22.2–36.8%	10.2%	7.0–14.0%	6.5%	4.3–9.3%	2.2%	1.3–3.7%
1 Sep 2026	8.2%	5.6–11.7%	11.2%	7.9–15.2%	30.0%	22.9–37.3%	29.8%	22.6–36.9%	10.2%	6.9–14.0%	6.5%	4.3–9.5%	2.2%	1.3–3.7%
2 Sep 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.8%	11.2%	7.6–15.8%	30.0%	22.5–37.6%	29.8%	22.2–37.4%	10.2%	6.9–14.3%	6.5%	4.2–9.6%	2.2%	1.3–3.7%
3 Sep 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.7%	11.2%	7.8–15.4%	30.0%	22.7–37.4%	29.8%	22.4–37.1%	10.2%	7.0–14.3%	6.5%	4.3–9.4%	2.2%	1.3–3.8%
4 Sep 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.6%	11.2%	7.7–15.5%	30.0%	22.5–37.6%	29.8%	22.4–37.3%	10.2%	6.8–14.2%	6.5%	4.3–9.6%	2.2%	1.3–3.9%
5 Sep 2026	8.2%	5.4–11.9%	11.2%	7.4–15.4%	30.0%	22.5–37.6%	29.8%	22.2–36.9%	10.2%	6.8–14.1%	6.5%	4.3–9.6%	2.2%	1.2–3.8%
6 Sep 2026	8.2%	5.5–11.9%	11.2%	7.6–15.6%	30.0%	22.4–37.3%	29.8%	21.9–36.9%	10.2%	6.9–14.1%	6.5%	4.2–9.8%	2.2%	1.2–3.8%
7 Sep 2026	9.0%	6.2–12.4%	12.1%	8.5–16.4%	28.5%	21.4–35.6%	29.5%	22.4–36.7%	9.5%	6.5–13.1%	5.8%	3.8–8.4%	2.1%	1.3–3.5%
8 Sep 2026	9.0%	6.2–12.3%	12.1%	8.6–16.4%	28.5%	21.3–35.7%	29.5%	22.4–36.5%	9.5%	6.7–13.3%	5.8%	3.8–8.3%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
9 Sep 2026	9.0%	6.2–12.6%	12.1%	8.5–16.4%	28.5%	21.3–36.0%	29.5%	22.3–37.1%	9.5%	6.5–13.1%	5.8%	3.7–8.4%	2.1%	1.2–3.7%
10 Sep 2026	9.0%	6.1–12.8%	12.1%	8.4–16.4%	28.5%	21.2–35.5%	29.5%	22.2–36.8%	9.5%	6.5–13.4%	5.8%	3.8–8.4%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
11 Sep 2026	9.0%	6.1–12.6%	12.1%	8.5–16.6%	28.5%	21.1–35.9%	29.5%	22.2–36.7%	9.5%	6.5–13.2%	5.8%	3.7–8.6%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
12 Sep 2026	9.0%	6.1–12.6%	12.1%	8.4–16.6%	28.5%	21.2–35.4%	29.5%	22.6–37.1%	9.5%	6.5–13.4%	5.8%	3.7–8.6%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
13 Sep 2026	9.0%	6.0–12.5%	12.1%	8.3–16.4%	28.5%	21.0–36.0%	29.5%	21.9–36.7%	9.5%	6.3–13.3%	5.8%	3.8–8.8%	2.1%	1.2–3.7%
14 Sep 2026	9.0%	6.0–12.7%	12.1%	8.2–16.5%	28.4%	21.3–35.3%	29.5%	22.1–36.7%	9.5%	6.4–13.4%	5.8%	3.7–8.9%	2.1%	1.2–3.8%
15 Sep 2026	8.6%	6.0–11.6%	12.3%	8.7–16.6%	28.7%	21.8–35.9%	28.7%	21.5–36.1%	10.3%	7.2–14.0%	6.2%	4.2–8.8%	2.1%	1.3–3.3%
16 Sep 2026	8.6%	6.0–11.8%	12.3%	8.7–16.7%	28.7%	21.9–35.9%	28.7%	22.1–36.1%	10.3%	7.1–13.9%	6.2%	4.2–8.8%	2.1%	1.3–3.5%
17 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.9–12.1%	12.3%	8.8–16.6%	28.7%	21.7–35.6%	28.7%	21.6–36.5%	10.3%	7.2–14.0%	6.2%	4.2–9.0%	2.1%	1.3–3.5%
18 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.9–11.8%	12.3%	8.9–16.6%	28.7%	21.6–35.8%	28.7%	21.7–35.8%	10.3%	7.0–14.0%	6.2%	4.1–8.8%	2.1%	1.3–3.5%
19 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.9–11.9%	12.3%	8.7–16.8%	28.7%	21.6–36.1%	28.7%	21.6–35.7%	10.3%	7.0–14.2%	6.2%	4.1–9.0%	2.1%	1.3–3.5%
20 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.8–12.2%	12.3%	8.8–16.6%	28.7%	21.8–36.1%	28.7%	21.8–35.8%	10.3%	7.0–14.3%	6.2%	4.1–8.8%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
21 Sep 2026	8.6%	6.0–12.2%	12.3%	8.7–17.1%	28.7%	21.4–36.1%	28.7%	21.5–35.7%	10.3%	7.2–14.2%	6.2%	4.2–9.0%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
22 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.9–12.0%	12.3%	8.7–16.7%	28.7%	21.7–36.5%	28.7%	21.6–35.9%	10.3%	7.1–14.4%	6.2%	4.1–8.9%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
23 Sep 2026	8.6%	6.1–12.1%	12.3%	8.5–16.6%	28.7%	21.8–35.5%	28.7%	21.6–35.7%	10.3%	7.2–14.2%	6.2%	4.1–9.1%	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
24 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.8–12.3%	12.3%	8.6–16.7%	28.7%	21.4–35.7%	28.7%	21.6–35.7%	10.3%	7.2–14.5%	6.2%	3.9–9.1%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
25 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.8–12.4%	12.3%	8.6–16.7%	28.7%	21.6–36.1%	28.7%	21.6–35.4%	10.3%	7.0–14.5%	6.2%	4.1–9.2%	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
26 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.7–12.2%	12.3%	8.7–16.9%	28.7%	21.4–36.6%	28.7%	21.3–36.0%	10.3%	6.9–14.4%	6.2%	4.1–9.4%	2.1%	1.2–3.8%
27 Sep 2026	8.6%	5.7–12.4%	12.3%	8.6–17.2%	28.7%	21.3–35.6%	28.7%	21.5–35.9%	10.3%	7.1–14.4%	6.2%	4.0–8.9%	2.1%	1.2–3.8%
28 Sep 2026	9.5%	6.5–13.2%	13.7%	9.8–18.6%	28.5%	21.5–35.6%	28.5%	21.4–35.7%	9.8%	6.9–13.7%	6.1%	4.0–8.8%	1.8%	1.0–3.0%
29 Sep 2026	9.5%	6.6–13.1%	13.7%	9.8–18.2%	28.5%	21.6–35.7%	28.5%	21.6–35.2%	9.8%	7.0–13.7%	6.1%	4.1–8.8%	1.8%	1.0–3.1%
30 Sep 2026	9.5%	6.6–13.3%	13.7%	9.7–18.3%	28.5%	21.7–35.5%	28.5%	21.6–35.5%	9.8%	6.9–13.7%	6.1%	4.0–8.8%	1.8%	1.1–3.0%
1 Oct 2026	9.5%	6.6–13.2%	13.7%	9.7–18.4%	28.5%	21.3–35.2%	28.5%	21.6–35.8%	9.8%	6.8–13.7%	6.1%	4.0–9.0%	1.8%	1.0–3.1%
2 Oct 2026	9.5%	6.6–13.2%	13.7%	9.8–18.6%	28.5%	21.4–36.0%	28.5%	21.5–35.9%	9.8%	6.7–13.5%	6.1%	4.0–8.8%	1.8%	1.0–3.1%
3 Oct 2026	9.5%	6.5–13.1%	13.7%	9.7–18.8%	28.5%	21.5–35.6%	28.5%	21.5–35.8%	9.8%	6.8–13.3%	6.1%	4.0–8.9%	1.8%	1.0–3.1%
4 Oct 2026	9.5%	6.5–13.4%	13.7%	9.5–18.6%	28.4%	21.3–35.7%	28.4%	21.4–35.7%	9.8%	6.7–14.0%	6.1%	4.0–9.1%	1.8%	1.0–3.3%
5 Oct 2026	9.5%	6.5–13.3%	13.7%	9.7–18.5%	28.4%	21.4–35.7%	28.4%	21.3–35.7%	9.8%	6.7–13.8%	6.1%	4.1–9.0%	1.8%	1.0–3.2%
6 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.6–12.9%	14.7%	10.5–19.6%	28.3%	21.4–35.1%	28.3%	21.7–35.9%	10.0%	7.0–13.7%	6.3%	4.4–8.9%	1.5%	0.9–2.5%
7 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.7–12.8%	14.7%	10.6–19.6%	28.3%	21.4–35.6%	28.3%	21.4–35.1%	10.0%	7.2–13.6%	6.3%	4.2–8.9%	1.5%	0.9–2.5%
8 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.6–12.8%	14.4%	10.3–19.2%	28.3%	21.4–35.3%	28.4%	21.5–35.2%	10.4%	7.4–14.1%	6.0%	4.1–8.2%	1.5%	1.0–2.4%
9 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.7–12.8%	14.4%	10.5–19.2%	28.3%	21.6–35.3%	28.4%	21.5–35.4%	10.4%	7.4–14.0%	6.0%	4.1–8.4%	1.5%	0.9–2.4%
10 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.5–12.8%	14.4%	10.3–19.2%	28.3%	21.3–35.1%	28.4%	21.1–35.5%	10.4%	7.5–14.3%	6.0%	4.1–8.6%	1.5%	0.9–2.5%
11 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.6–12.8%	14.4%	10.5–19.2%	28.3%	21.5–35.1%	28.3%	21.7–35.4%	10.4%	7.4–13.9%	6.0%	4.1–8.4%	1.5%	0.9–2.5%
12 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.6–12.7%	14.4%	10.3–19.2%	28.3%	21.6–35.5%	28.3%	21.7–35.4%	10.4%	7.3–14.2%	6.0%	4.1–8.5%	1.5%	0.9–2.5%
13 Oct 2026	9.5%	6.7–13.1%	14.5%	10.4–19.2%	28.1%	21.5–34.7%	28.2%	21.4–34.8%	10.3%	7.5–14.2%	6.4%	4.4–8.9%	1.2%	0.8–2.1%
14 Oct 2026	9.5%	6.7–12.8%	14.5%	10.6–19.4%	28.1%	21.4–35.2%	28.2%	21.4–35.4%	10.3%	7.4–13.8%	6.4%	4.4–8.9%	1.2%	0.8–2.1%
15 Oct 2026	9.5%	6.7–12.9%	14.5%	10.6–19.5%	28.1%	21.3–35.1%	28.2%	21.3–35.3%	10.3%	7.2–13.9%	6.4%	4.4–9.1%	1.2%	0.7–2.1%
16 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.6–13.0%	14.6%	10.5–19.2%	28.3%	21.4–35.4%	28.2%	21.5–35.2%	10.2%	7.3–14.0%	6.2%	4.4–8.8%	1.4%	0.8–2.2%
17 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.6–12.7%	14.6%	10.6–19.6%	28.3%	21.6–35.5%	28.2%	21.8–34.9%	10.2%	7.3–13.9%	6.2%	4.3–8.7%	1.4%	0.8–2.2%
18 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.7–12.8%	14.6%	10.7–19.2%	28.3%	22.0–35.1%	28.2%	21.4–35.0%	10.2%	7.3–13.9%	6.2%	4.4–8.6%	1.4%	0.8–2.3%
19 Oct 2026	9.4%	6.6–12.9%	14.6%	10.5–19.3%	28.3%	21.7–35.6%	28.2%	21.2–34.6%	10.2%	7.3–13.9%	6.2%	4.3–8.8%	1.4%	0.8–2.3%
20 Oct 2026	9.6%	7.0–13.1%	14.8%	10.6–19.6%	28.0%	21.5–35.1%	28.6%	22.1–35.4%	10.0%	7.3–13.4%	6.2%	4.3–8.5%	1.3%	0.8–2.1%

Pollster leans

Gap from our average the day before; counted polls only.

Pollster	Polls compared	ACT	Green	Labour	National	NZ First	Opportunity	Te Pāti Māori	Other
Curia Market Research	9	0.0	−0.3	−1.1	−0.2	+0.2	−0.6	+0.2	+1.8
Freshwater Strategy	4	−0.5	+0.2	+1.9	−1.7	+1.4	–	−0.1	+0.5
Reid Research	4	−0.1	−0.2	+2.1	−1.0	+0.8	−0.2	+0.4	−2.1
Roy Morgan	9	+2.0	+2.5	−4.9	+0.4	−1.0	+2.2	0.0	−1.1
Talbot Mills	8	−0.6	−0.3	+1.7	+0.2	+0.9	−0.1	0.0	–
Verian	8	+0.6	+1.7	−0.3	+0.5	−1.0	+0.9	−1.0	−0.9

Close to 5%

Numbers

Date	Opportunity	Opportunity, middle 90% of runs
27 Jan 2026	1.5%	0.8–3.0%
28 Jan 2026	1.5%	0.8–3.2%
29 Jan 2026	1.5%	0.8–3.3%
30 Jan 2026	1.5%	0.8–2.9%
31 Jan 2026	1.5%	0.8–2.9%
1 Feb 2026	1.5%	0.8–3.0%
2 Feb 2026	1.5%	0.8–3.0%
3 Feb 2026	1.8%	1.1–3.3%
4 Feb 2026	1.8%	1.0–3.3%
5 Feb 2026	1.8%	1.0–3.3%
6 Feb 2026	1.8%	1.0–3.4%
7 Feb 2026	1.8%	1.0–3.3%
8 Feb 2026	1.8%	1.0–3.4%
9 Feb 2026	1.7%	0.9–3.0%
10 Feb 2026	1.7%	0.9–3.0%
11 Feb 2026	1.7%	0.9–3.0%
12 Feb 2026	1.7%	0.9–3.0%
13 Feb 2026	1.7%	0.9–3.1%
14 Feb 2026	1.7%	0.9–3.1%
15 Feb 2026	1.7%	0.9–3.1%
16 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.8–2.6%
17 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.8–2.6%
18 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.8–2.5%
19 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.8–2.6%
20 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.8–2.7%
21 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.8–2.7%
22 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.7–2.6%
23 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.7–2.8%
24 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.7–2.8%
25 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.8–2.6%
26 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.8–2.8%
27 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.7–2.7%
28 Feb 2026	1.4%	0.7–2.8%
1 Mar 2026	1.4%	0.7–2.8%
2 Mar 2026	1.4%	0.7–2.8%
3 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
4 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.7%
5 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.8%
6 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.2–3.4%
7 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.2–3.4%
8 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.2–3.5%
9 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.2–3.4%
10 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.2–3.4%
11 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.1–3.6%
12 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.1–3.5%
13 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.1–3.6%
14 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.1–3.7%
15 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.1–3.6%
16 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.1–3.8%
17 Mar 2026	2.0%	1.1–3.8%
18 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
19 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.8%
20 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.7%
21 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.7%
22 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.8%
23 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
24 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.5%
25 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
26 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.6%
27 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.7%
28 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.8%
29 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.9%
30 Mar 2026	2.1%	1.2–3.8%
31 Mar 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.1%
1 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.2%
2 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.1%
3 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.3%
4 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.2%
5 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.3%
6 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.4%
7 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.5–4.1%
8 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.5–4.2%
9 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.5–4.1%
10 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.5–4.2%
11 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.5–4.3%
12 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.3%
13 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.5%
14 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.4%
15 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.4%
16 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.5%
17 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.5%
18 Apr 2026	2.5%	1.4–4.6%
19 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.7–4.8%
20 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.7–4.6%
21 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.7–4.6%
22 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.7–4.7%
23 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.6–4.7%
24 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.6–4.9%
25 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.6–4.9%
26 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.6–4.8%
27 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.6–5.0%
28 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.6–4.9%
29 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.6–5.1%
30 Apr 2026	2.8%	1.6–5.1%
1 May 2026	2.8%	1.5–5.1%
2 May 2026	2.8%	1.5–5.3%
3 May 2026	2.8%	1.5–5.3%
4 May 2026	2.9%	1.5–5.6%
5 May 2026	2.9%	1.5–5.5%
6 May 2026	2.9%	1.5–5.5%
7 May 2026	2.9%	1.5–5.6%
8 May 2026	2.9%	1.5–5.6%
9 May 2026	2.9%	1.4–5.7%
10 May 2026	2.9%	1.4–5.6%
11 May 2026	2.9%	1.4–6.2%
12 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
13 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–5.2%
14 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–4.9%
15 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–4.8%
16 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
17 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
18 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–4.9%
19 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
20 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
21 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–5.0%
22 May 2026	3.0%	1.7–5.2%
23 May 2026	3.0%	1.8–5.3%
24 May 2026	3.0%	1.7–5.2%
25 May 2026	3.0%	1.7–5.3%
26 May 2026	3.0%	1.7–5.2%
27 May 2026	3.0%	1.7–5.3%
28 May 2026	3.0%	1.6–5.4%
29 May 2026	3.0%	1.7–5.4%
30 May 2026	3.0%	1.6–5.7%
31 May 2026	3.0%	1.6–5.4%
1 Jun 2026	3.0%	1.6–5.8%
2 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.4–6.9%
3 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.5–6.9%
4 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.4–6.9%
5 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.4–6.9%
6 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.4–7.1%
7 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.3–7.3%
8 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.3–7.3%
9 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.2–7.3%
10 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.2–7.3%
11 Jun 2026	4.2%	2.3–7.5%
12 Jun 2026	3.6%	2.1–5.9%
13 Jun 2026	3.6%	2.1–5.9%
14 Jun 2026	3.6%	2.1–6.0%
15 Jun 2026	3.6%	2.2–5.7%
16 Jun 2026	3.6%	2.2–5.7%
17 Jun 2026	3.4%	2.1–5.4%
18 Jun 2026	3.4%	2.1–5.4%
19 Jun 2026	3.4%	2.2–5.4%
20 Jun 2026	3.4%	2.1–5.3%
21 Jun 2026	3.4%	2.1–5.6%
22 Jun 2026	3.4%	2.1–5.5%
23 Jun 2026	3.9%	2.5–5.9%
24 Jun 2026	3.9%	2.5–5.9%
25 Jun 2026	3.9%	2.5–5.9%
26 Jun 2026	3.9%	2.5–5.9%
27 Jun 2026	3.9%	2.4–5.8%
28 Jun 2026	3.9%	2.5–5.9%
29 Jun 2026	3.9%	2.5–6.1%
30 Jun 2026	4.4%	2.8–6.6%
1 Jul 2026	4.4%	2.8–6.7%
2 Jul 2026	4.4%	2.8–6.9%
3 Jul 2026	4.4%	2.8–6.8%
4 Jul 2026	4.4%	2.8–6.8%
5 Jul 2026	4.4%	2.7–6.8%
6 Jul 2026	4.4%	2.8–6.9%
7 Jul 2026	4.4%	2.7–7.1%
8 Jul 2026	4.4%	2.7–7.0%
9 Jul 2026	3.9%	2.5–6.0%
10 Jul 2026	3.9%	2.5–6.1%
11 Jul 2026	3.9%	2.5–6.2%
12 Jul 2026	3.9%	2.4–6.1%
13 Jul 2026	3.9%	2.5–6.2%
14 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.7–6.2%
15 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.8–6.3%
16 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.6–6.4%
17 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.7–6.5%
18 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.6–6.4%
19 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.7–6.6%
20 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.6–6.6%
21 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.6–6.8%
22 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.6–6.8%
23 Jul 2026	4.2%	2.5–6.7%
24 Jul 2026	4.3%	2.8–6.6%
25 Jul 2026	4.3%	2.8–6.5%
26 Jul 2026	4.3%	2.7–6.7%
27 Jul 2026	4.3%	2.7–6.7%
28 Jul 2026	4.3%	2.6–6.7%
29 Jul 2026	4.3%	2.7–6.8%
30 Jul 2026	4.3%	2.7–6.8%
31 Jul 2026	4.3%	2.6–6.9%
1 Aug 2026	4.3%	2.6–6.9%
2 Aug 2026	4.3%	2.6–7.0%
3 Aug 2026	4.3%	2.6–6.8%
4 Aug 2026	5.2%	3.3–8.1%
5 Aug 2026	5.2%	3.3–8.1%
6 Aug 2026	5.2%	3.2–8.3%
7 Aug 2026	5.5%	3.6–8.2%
8 Aug 2026	5.5%	3.5–8.3%
9 Aug 2026	5.5%	3.6–8.2%
10 Aug 2026	5.5%	3.6–8.3%
11 Aug 2026	5.5%	3.5–8.2%
12 Aug 2026	6.4%	4.3–9.3%
13 Aug 2026	6.4%	4.3–9.3%
14 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.2–8.7%
15 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.1–8.6%
16 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.1–8.7%
17 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.8%
18 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.1–8.8%
19 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.6%
20 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.8%
21 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.8%
22 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.9%
23 Aug 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.9%
24 Aug 2026	5.9%	3.9–8.6%
25 Aug 2026	5.9%	3.9–8.6%
26 Aug 2026	5.9%	3.9–8.5%
27 Aug 2026	5.9%	4.0–8.7%
28 Aug 2026	5.9%	3.9–8.5%
29 Aug 2026	5.9%	3.9–8.5%
30 Aug 2026	5.9%	3.9–8.8%
31 Aug 2026	6.5%	4.3–9.3%
1 Sep 2026	6.5%	4.3–9.5%
2 Sep 2026	6.5%	4.2–9.6%
3 Sep 2026	6.5%	4.3–9.4%
4 Sep 2026	6.5%	4.3–9.6%
5 Sep 2026	6.5%	4.3–9.6%
6 Sep 2026	6.5%	4.2–9.8%
7 Sep 2026	5.8%	3.8–8.4%
8 Sep 2026	5.8%	3.8–8.3%
9 Sep 2026	5.8%	3.7–8.4%
10 Sep 2026	5.8%	3.8–8.4%
11 Sep 2026	5.8%	3.7–8.6%
12 Sep 2026	5.8%	3.7–8.6%
13 Sep 2026	5.8%	3.8–8.8%
14 Sep 2026	5.8%	3.7–8.9%
15 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.2–8.8%
16 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.2–8.8%
17 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.2–9.0%
18 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.1–8.8%
19 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.1–9.0%
20 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.1–8.8%
21 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.2–9.0%
22 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.1–8.9%
23 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.1–9.1%
24 Sep 2026	6.2%	3.9–9.1%
25 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.1–9.2%
26 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.1–9.4%
27 Sep 2026	6.2%	4.0–8.9%
28 Sep 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.8%
29 Sep 2026	6.1%	4.1–8.8%
30 Sep 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.8%
1 Oct 2026	6.1%	4.0–9.0%
2 Oct 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.8%
3 Oct 2026	6.1%	4.0–8.9%
4 Oct 2026	6.1%	4.0–9.1%
5 Oct 2026	6.1%	4.1–9.0%
6 Oct 2026	6.3%	4.4–8.9%
7 Oct 2026	6.3%	4.2–8.9%
8 Oct 2026	6.0%	4.1–8.2%
9 Oct 2026	6.0%	4.1–8.4%
10 Oct 2026	6.0%	4.1–8.6%
11 Oct 2026	6.0%	4.1–8.4%
12 Oct 2026	6.0%	4.1–8.5%
13 Oct 2026	6.4%	4.4–8.9%
14 Oct 2026	6.4%	4.4–8.9%
15 Oct 2026	6.4%	4.4–9.1%
16 Oct 2026	6.2%	4.4–8.8%
17 Oct 2026	6.2%	4.3–8.7%
18 Oct 2026	6.2%	4.4–8.6%
19 Oct 2026	6.2%	4.3–8.8%
20 Oct 2026	6.2%	4.3–8.5%

Seats since 27 January

Shown then

Numbers

Date	ACT	ACT seats, middle 80% of runs	Green	Green seats, middle 80% of runs	Labour	Labour seats, middle 80% of runs	National	National seats, middle 80% of runs	NZ First	NZ First seats, middle 80% of runs	Opportunity	Opportunity seats, middle 80% of runs	Te Pāti Māori	Te Pāti Māori seats, middle 80% of runs	Majority line
27 Jan 2026	9	7–12	11	8–14	43	35–51	40	37–47	13	10–18	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
28 Jan 2026	9	6–12	11	8–15	43	35–51	40	37–47	13	10–18	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
29 Jan 2026	9	6–13	11	8–15	43	35–51	40	37–47	13	10–18	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
30 Jan 2026	9	7–13	11	9–15	44	35–51	39	36–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
31 Jan 2026	9	7–13	11	9–15	44	35–51	39	36–47	13	9–17	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
1 Feb 2026	9	7–13	11	8–15	44	35–51	39	36–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
2 Feb 2026	9	7–13	11	8–15	44	35–51	39	36–46	13	9–17	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
3 Feb 2026	10	7–13	12	9–15	42	35–50	40	37–47	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
4 Feb 2026	10	7–13	12	9–16	42	34–50	40	37–48	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
5 Feb 2026	10	7–13	12	9–16	42	34–50	40	37–48	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
6 Feb 2026	10	7–13	12	9–16	42	34–50	40	37–48	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
7 Feb 2026	10	7–13	12	9–16	42	34–50	40	37–48	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
8 Feb 2026	10	7–13	12	9–16	42	34–50	40	37–48	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
9 Feb 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	42	35–50	40	37–47	13	10–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
10 Feb 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	42	35–50	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
11 Feb 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	42	34–50	40	37–47	13	9–17	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
12 Feb 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	42	35–49	40	37–47	13	9–17	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
13 Feb 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	42	35–50	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
14 Feb 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	42	34–50	40	37–47	13	9–17	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
15 Feb 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	42	34–50	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
16 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	9–16	41	34–49	40	37–48	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
17 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	9–16	41	34–49	40	37–48	13	10–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
18 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	9–16	41	34–49	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
19 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	41	34–49	40	37–48	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
20 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	9–16	41	34–48	40	37–48	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
21 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	9–16	41	34–49	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
22 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	41	34–48	40	37–48	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
23 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	9–16	41	33–49	40	37–49	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
24 Feb 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	41	33–49	40	37–48	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
25 Feb 2026	9	7–13	13	9–17	42	35–50	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
26 Feb 2026	9	7–13	13	9–16	42	35–50	40	37–47	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
27 Feb 2026	9	7–13	13	9–16	42	35–50	40	37–47	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
28 Feb 2026	9	7–13	13	9–16	42	35–50	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
1 Mar 2026	9	7–13	13	9–17	42	35–50	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
2 Mar 2026	9	7–13	13	9–17	42	34–50	40	37–47	13	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
3 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	34–49	39	37–47	12	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
4 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	33–49	39	37–47	12	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
5 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	34–49	39	37–47	12	9–16	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
6 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–17	42	35–50	38	37–46	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
7 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	35–50	38	37–46	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
8 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–17	42	35–50	38	37–46	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
9 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	35–50	38	37–46	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
10 Mar 2026	10	7–12	14	10–17	42	35–50	38	37–45	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
11 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	35–50	38	37–46	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
12 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	35–50	38	37–45	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
13 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	34–50	38	37–46	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
14 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	35–50	38	37–46	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
15 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	34–50	38	37–46	12	9–17	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
16 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	34–50	38	37–46	12	9–16	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
17 Mar 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	42	34–50	38	37–46	12	9–17	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
18 Mar 2026	9	7–12	14	10–18	42	35–50	39	37–46	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
19 Mar 2026	9	7–12	14	10–17	42	35–50	39	37–46	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
20 Mar 2026	9	7–12	14	10–18	42	34–50	39	37–46	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
21 Mar 2026	9	7–12	14	10–18	42	35–50	39	37–46	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
22 Mar 2026	9	7–13	14	10–18	42	34–50	39	37–46	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
23 Mar 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	43	35–51	39	36–45	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
24 Mar 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	43	35–50	39	36–45	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
25 Mar 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	43	35–50	39	36–46	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
26 Mar 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	43	35–50	39	36–46	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
27 Mar 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	43	35–50	39	36–46	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
28 Mar 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	43	35–50	39	36–46	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
29 Mar 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	43	35–51	39	36–46	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
30 Mar 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	43	35–51	39	36–45	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
31 Mar 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	43	35–51	38	36–45	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
1 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	43	35–51	38	36–45	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
2 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	43	35–50	38	36–45	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
3 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	43	35–50	38	36–45	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
4 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	10–18	43	35–51	38	36–45	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
5 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	10–18	43	35–50	38	36–45	13	10–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
6 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	43	35–51	38	36–45	13	9–17	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
7 Apr 2026	10	8–14	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	36–45	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
8 Apr 2026	10	8–14	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
9 Apr 2026	10	8–13	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	36–44	15	11–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
10 Apr 2026	10	8–13	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	36–45	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
11 Apr 2026	10	7–14	12	9–16	43	34–50	37	36–45	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
12 Apr 2026	10	8–14	12	9–16	43	34–50	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
13 Apr 2026	10	7–14	12	9–16	43	34–50	37	36–45	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
14 Apr 2026	10	8–14	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
15 Apr 2026	10	7–14	12	9–16	43	34–50	37	36–45	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
16 Apr 2026	10	7–14	12	9–16	43	34–50	37	36–45	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
17 Apr 2026	10	7–14	12	9–16	43	34–51	37	36–45	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
18 Apr 2026	10	7–14	12	9–16	43	34–50	37	36–45	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
19 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–16	43	36–51	37	34–44	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–4	61
20 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–16	43	36–51	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–4	61
21 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	43	36–51	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–4	61
22 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	36–52	37	34–44	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–4	61
23 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	10–16	43	36–51	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–4	61
24 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–51	37	34–44	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–4	61
25 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–51	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–4	61
26 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–52	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
27 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–51	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
28 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–52	37	34–44	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
29 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	36–51	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
30 Apr 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	36–52	37	34–44	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
1 May 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–52	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
2 May 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–52	37	34–44	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
3 May 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	34–52	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
4 May 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–52	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
5 May 2026	10	7–14	13	9–17	43	35–51	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
6 May 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	43	35–51	37	34–45	14	10–18	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
7 May 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	43	35–52	37	34–44	14	10–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
8 May 2026	10	6–14	13	9–17	43	34–52	37	34–45	14	10–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
9 May 2026	10	7–14	13	9–17	43	34–52	37	34–45	14	9–18	0	0–6	3	3–5	61
10 May 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	43	34–52	37	34–45	14	10–19	0	0–6	3	3–5	61
11 May 2026	10	6–14	12	8–18	44	34–52	37	34–45	14	9–19	0	0–6	3	3–5	61
12 May 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	42	34–49	37	36–44	14	11–19	0	0–0	5	5–6	61
13 May 2026	10	7–13	13	9–17	42	34–50	37	36–44	14	11–19	0	0–0	5	5–6	61
14 May 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	35–43	15	12–19	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
15 May 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	43	35–51	37	35–44	15	12–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
16 May 2026	9	7–13	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	35–44	15	12–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
17 May 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	35–44	15	12–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
18 May 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	43	35–51	37	35–44	15	12–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
19 May 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	43	35–51	37	35–43	15	12–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
20 May 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
21 May 2026	9	7–13	12	9–16	43	35–51	37	35–43	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
22 May 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	43	35–51	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
23 May 2026	9	7–13	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
24 May 2026	9	7–12	12	9–16	43	35–50	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–5	61
25 May 2026	9	7–13	12	9–16	43	34–51	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
26 May 2026	9	6–13	12	9–16	43	35–51	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
27 May 2026	9	7–13	12	9–17	43	34–50	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
28 May 2026	9	6–13	12	9–16	43	34–50	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
29 May 2026	9	6–13	12	9–17	43	34–51	37	35–44	15	11–20	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
30 May 2026	9	6–13	12	9–16	43	34–51	37	35–43	15	11–20	0	0–6	4	3–6	61
31 May 2026	9	6–13	12	9–16	43	34–51	37	35–44	15	11–21	0	0–0	4	3–6	61
1 Jun 2026	9	6–13	12	8–17	43	34–50	37	35–44	15	11–21	0	0–6	4	3–6	61
2 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	10–17	41	31–47	38	37–44	15	11–20	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
3 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	41	31–47	38	37–45	15	11–19	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
4 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	41	31–47	38	37–44	15	11–20	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
5 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	41	31–48	38	37–45	15	11–19	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
6 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	41	31–47	38	37–44	15	11–20	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
7 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	9–17	41	31–47	38	37–45	15	11–20	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
8 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	41	31–47	38	37–44	15	11–20	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
9 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	41	30–47	38	37–45	15	11–20	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
10 Jun 2026	10	7–14	13	9–18	41	31–48	38	37–45	15	11–20	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
11 Jun 2026	10	7–15	13	9–18	41	31–48	38	37–45	15	10–20	0	0–8	3	3–6	61
12 Jun 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	40	32–47	37	37–44	15	11–19	0	0–6	5	5–6	61
13 Jun 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	40	32–47	37	37–44	15	11–19	0	0–6	5	5–6	61
14 Jun 2026	10	7–14	14	10–18	40	32–47	37	37–45	15	11–19	0	0–6	5	5–6	61
15 Jun 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	42	33–49	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–6	3	3–5	61
16 Jun 2026	10	7–13	13	10–18	42	33–48	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–6	3	3–5	61
17 Jun 2026	9	7–12	14	11–18	42	34–49	37	36–43	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
18 Jun 2026	9	7–12	14	11–18	42	34–49	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
19 Jun 2026	9	7–12	14	11–18	42	34–49	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
20 Jun 2026	9	7–12	14	11–18	42	34–49	37	36–43	15	11–19	0	0–0	3	3–5	61
21 Jun 2026	9	7–12	14	11–18	42	34–49	37	36–43	15	11–19	0	0–6	3	3–5	61
22 Jun 2026	9	7–12	14	11–18	42	34–48	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–6	3	3–5	61
23 Jun 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	41	34–49	37	36–44	15	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–4	61
24 Jun 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	41	34–48	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–7	3	3–4	61
25 Jun 2026	9	6–12	15	11–19	41	34–49	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–7	3	3–4	61
26 Jun 2026	9	6–12	15	11–19	41	33–48	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–7	3	3–4	61
27 Jun 2026	9	6–12	15	11–19	41	34–49	37	36–43	15	11–19	0	0–6	3	3–4	61
28 Jun 2026	9	6–12	15	11–19	41	33–49	37	36–44	15	11–19	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
29 Jun 2026	9	6–12	15	11–19	41	33–48	37	36–43	15	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
30 Jun 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–44	15	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
1 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–44	15	11–18	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
2 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–44	15	11–18	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
3 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–44	15	11–18	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
4 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	31–46	38	37–44	15	11–19	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
5 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–44	15	10–18	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
6 Jul 2026	9	7–13	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–44	15	10–18	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
7 Jul 2026	9	7–13	15	11–19	40	31–47	38	37–44	15	10–18	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
8 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–20	40	31–47	38	37–44	15	10–18	0	0–8	3	3–5	61
9 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–45	14	10–18	0	0–7	4	4–5	61
10 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–45	14	11–18	0	0–7	4	4–5	61
11 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	33–47	38	37–45	14	11–18	0	0–7	4	4–5	61
12 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–19	40	32–47	38	37–45	14	10–18	0	0–7	4	4–5	61
13 Jul 2026	9	7–12	15	11–18	40	32–47	38	37–45	14	11–18	0	0–7	5	5–5	61
14 Jul 2026	10	7–12	14	11–18	41	33–48	38	37–44	14	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
15 Jul 2026	10	7–12	14	11–18	41	33–48	38	37–45	14	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
16 Jul 2026	10	7–12	14	10–18	41	33–48	38	37–44	14	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
17 Jul 2026	10	7–12	14	10–18	41	33–47	38	37–44	14	10–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
18 Jul 2026	10	7–12	14	11–18	41	33–48	38	37–44	14	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
19 Jul 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	41	32–48	38	37–45	14	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
20 Jul 2026	10	7–12	14	10–18	41	33–48	38	37–44	14	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
21 Jul 2026	10	7–12	14	10–18	41	32–48	38	37–45	14	11–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
22 Jul 2026	10	7–12	14	10–18	41	32–48	38	37–44	14	10–19	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
23 Jul 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	41	32–48	38	37–45	14	10–18	0	0–7	3	3–5	61
24 Jul 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	41	33–48	38	37–45	15	11–18	0	0–7	4	3–5	61
25 Jul 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	41	33–48	38	37–44	15	11–19	0	0–7	4	3–5	61
26 Jul 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	41	33–48	38	37–45	15	11–18	0	0–7	4	3–5	61
27 Jul 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	41	32–48	38	37–45	15	11–19	0	0–8	4	3–5	61
28 Jul 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	41	33–48	38	37–45	15	11–18	0	0–7	4	3–5	61
29 Jul 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	41	33–48	38	37–45	15	11–19	0	0–8	4	3–5	61
30 Jul 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	41	32–48	38	37–45	15	11–19	0	0–8	4	3–5	61
31 Jul 2026	9	7–12	13	10–17	41	32–48	38	37–45	15	11–18	0	0–8	4	3–5	61
1 Aug 2026	9	6–12	13	10–17	41	33–48	38	37–45	15	10–18	0	0–8	4	3–5	61
2 Aug 2026	9	6–12	13	10–17	41	33–48	38	37–45	15	11–19	0	0–8	4	3–5	61
3 Aug 2026	9	6–12	13	9–17	41	32–49	38	37–45	15	10–19	0	0–8	4	3–5	61
4 Aug 2026	9	7–13	14	10–18	38	31–46	37	37–45	13	10–18	6	0–9	3	3–5	61
5 Aug 2026	9	7–13	14	10–18	38	30–46	37	37–45	13	10–18	6	0–9	3	3–5	61
6 Aug 2026	9	7–13	14	10–18	38	31–46	37	37–45	13	10–17	6	0–9	3	3–5	61
7 Aug 2026	9	7–12	13	10–18	37	30–45	38	38–46	13	10–17	7	0–9	3	3–4	61
8 Aug 2026	9	7–12	13	10–18	37	29–45	38	38–46	13	10–17	7	0–9	3	3–4	61
9 Aug 2026	9	7–13	13	10–18	37	30–45	38	38–46	13	10–17	7	0–9	3	3–4	61
10 Aug 2026	9	7–13	13	10–18	37	30–44	38	38–46	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
11 Aug 2026	9	7–13	13	10–18	37	30–45	38	38–46	13	10–17	7	0–9	3	3–4	61
12 Aug 2026	10	8–13	14	10–18	37	30–44	37	37–45	12	9–15	8	0–11	3	3–3	61
13 Aug 2026	10	7–13	14	11–18	37	30–45	37	37–45	12	9–15	8	0–11	3	3–3	61
14 Aug 2026	10	7–12	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
15 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–45	37	37–44	13	10–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
16 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–45	37	37–44	13	10–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
17 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
18 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
19 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
20 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
21 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
22 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–45	13	10–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
23 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
24 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–16	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
25 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	32–46	37	37–43	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
26 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
27 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–16	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
28 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
29 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–43	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
30 Aug 2026	10	7–13	13	10–17	38	31–46	37	37–44	13	10–17	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
31 Aug 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	37	30–44	37	37–44	12	9–16	8	0–10	3	3–4	61
1 Sep 2026	10	8–13	14	10–18	37	30–44	37	37–44	12	9–16	8	0–11	3	3–4	61
2 Sep 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	37	30–44	37	37–44	12	9–16	8	0–11	3	3–4	61
3 Sep 2026	10	8–13	14	10–18	37	30–44	37	37–44	12	9–16	8	0–11	3	3–4	61
4 Sep 2026	10	7–13	14	10–18	37	29–44	37	37–44	12	9–16	8	0–11	3	3–4	61
5 Sep 2026	10	7–14	14	10–18	37	29–44	37	37–44	12	9–16	8	0–11	3	3–4	61
6 Sep 2026	10	7–14	14	10–18	37	29–44	37	37–44	12	9–16	8	0–11	3	3–4	61
7 Sep 2026	11	9–15	15	12–19	35	29–43	38	38–45	12	9–15	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
8 Sep 2026	11	9–15	15	12–19	35	28–43	38	38–44	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
9 Sep 2026	11	8–15	15	12–19	35	28–43	38	38–45	12	9–15	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
10 Sep 2026	11	8–15	15	11–19	35	29–43	38	38–45	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
11 Sep 2026	11	8–15	15	12–20	35	29–43	38	38–44	12	9–15	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
12 Sep 2026	11	8–15	15	11–20	35	29–43	38	38–45	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
13 Sep 2026	11	8–15	15	11–19	35	28–43	38	38–44	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
14 Sep 2026	11	8–15	15	11–20	35	28–43	38	38–44	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	61
15 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–19	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	10–16	8	0–10	3	3–4	62
16 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–42	37	37–43	13	10–16	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
17 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–19	35	29–42	37	37–43	13	10–16	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
18 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	10–16	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
19 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	10–17	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
20 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–19	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	10–16	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
21 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	28–43	37	37–43	13	10–16	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
22 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	10–17	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
23 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–43	37	37–42	13	10–17	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
24 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	10–17	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
25 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	10–17	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
26 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	9–17	8	0–11	5	5–5	63
27 Sep 2026	11	8–14	15	12–20	35	29–43	37	37–43	13	10–17	8	0–10	5	5–5	63
28 Sep 2026	12	9–15	17	13–21	35	29–42	36	36–42	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–3	62
29 Sep 2026	12	9–15	17	13–21	35	28–42	36	36–42	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–3	62
30 Sep 2026	12	9–15	17	13–21	35	28–42	36	36–42	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–3	62
1 Oct 2026	12	9–15	17	13–21	35	28–42	36	36–42	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–3	62
2 Oct 2026	12	9–15	17	13–22	35	28–43	36	36–42	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–3	62
3 Oct 2026	12	9–15	17	13–22	35	28–42	36	36–43	12	9–15	7	0–10	3	3–3	62
4 Oct 2026	12	9–15	17	13–21	35	28–42	36	36–42	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	62
5 Oct 2026	12	9–15	17	13–22	35	28–42	36	36–42	12	9–16	7	0–10	3	3–4	62
6 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–23	34	28–41	36	36–42	12	9–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	62
7 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–23	34	28–42	36	36–41	12	9–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	62
8 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–42	36	36–42	13	10–16	7	0–9	4	4–4	62
9 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–41	36	36–42	13	10–16	7	0–9	4	4–4	62
10 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–41	36	36–42	13	10–16	7	0–10	4	4–4	62
11 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–42	36	36–42	13	10–16	7	0–10	4	4–4	62
12 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–42	36	36–42	13	10–16	7	0–10	4	4–4	62
13 Oct 2026	12	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–41	36	36–41	12	10–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	63
14 Oct 2026	12	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–41	36	36–42	12	10–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	63
15 Oct 2026	12	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–41	36	36–41	12	10–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	63
16 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–42	36	36–41	13	10–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	63
17 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–23	34	28–42	36	36–41	13	10–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	63
18 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–23	34	28–41	36	36–41	13	10–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	63
19 Oct 2026	11	9–15	18	14–22	34	28–42	36	36–41	13	10–16	8	0–10	4	4–4	63
20 Oct 2026	12	9–15	18	14–23	34	28–41	36	36–42	12	10–15	7	0–10	4	4–4	62

Runs where each party wins seats

Numbers

Date	Opportunity
27 Jan 2026	0%
28 Jan 2026	under 1%
29 Jan 2026	under 1%
30 Jan 2026	0%
31 Jan 2026	0%
1 Feb 2026	0%
2 Feb 2026	0%
3 Feb 2026	under 1%
4 Feb 2026	under 1%
5 Feb 2026	under 1%
6 Feb 2026	under 1%
7 Feb 2026	under 1%
8 Feb 2026	under 1%
9 Feb 2026	0%
10 Feb 2026	0%
11 Feb 2026	under 1%
12 Feb 2026	under 1%
13 Feb 2026	0%
14 Feb 2026	under 1%
15 Feb 2026	under 1%
16 Feb 2026	0%
17 Feb 2026	0%
18 Feb 2026	0%
19 Feb 2026	0%
20 Feb 2026	0%
21 Feb 2026	0%
22 Feb 2026	0%
23 Feb 2026	under 1%
24 Feb 2026	0%
25 Feb 2026	0%
26 Feb 2026	0%
27 Feb 2026	0%
28 Feb 2026	0%
1 Mar 2026	0%
2 Mar 2026	0%
3 Mar 2026	under 1%
4 Mar 2026	under 1%
5 Mar 2026	under 1%
6 Mar 2026	under 1%
7 Mar 2026	under 1%
8 Mar 2026	under 1%
9 Mar 2026	0%
10 Mar 2026	under 1%
11 Mar 2026	1%
12 Mar 2026	under 1%
13 Mar 2026	under 1%
14 Mar 2026	under 1%
15 Mar 2026	under 1%
16 Mar 2026	1%
17 Mar 2026	1%
18 Mar 2026	under 1%
19 Mar 2026	under 1%
20 Mar 2026	under 1%
21 Mar 2026	1%
22 Mar 2026	1%
23 Mar 2026	under 1%
24 Mar 2026	under 1%
25 Mar 2026	under 1%
26 Mar 2026	under 1%
27 Mar 2026	under 1%
28 Mar 2026	1%
29 Mar 2026	under 1%
30 Mar 2026	under 1%
31 Mar 2026	1%
1 Apr 2026	1%
2 Apr 2026	1%
3 Apr 2026	2%
4 Apr 2026	1%
5 Apr 2026	2%
6 Apr 2026	2%
7 Apr 2026	1%
8 Apr 2026	1%
9 Apr 2026	1%
10 Apr 2026	1%
11 Apr 2026	2%
12 Apr 2026	1%
13 Apr 2026	2%
14 Apr 2026	2%
15 Apr 2026	2%
16 Apr 2026	2%
17 Apr 2026	2%
18 Apr 2026	3%
19 Apr 2026	4%
20 Apr 2026	3%
21 Apr 2026	3%
22 Apr 2026	3%
23 Apr 2026	3%
24 Apr 2026	4%
25 Apr 2026	4%
26 Apr 2026	4%
27 Apr 2026	5%
28 Apr 2026	5%
29 Apr 2026	6%
30 Apr 2026	6%
1 May 2026	6%
2 May 2026	6%
3 May 2026	7%
4 May 2026	8%
5 May 2026	8%
6 May 2026	9%
7 May 2026	9%
8 May 2026	9%
9 May 2026	11%
10 May 2026	10%
11 May 2026	12%
12 May 2026	5%
13 May 2026	6%
14 May 2026	4%
15 May 2026	4%
16 May 2026	5%
17 May 2026	5%
18 May 2026	4%
19 May 2026	5%
20 May 2026	5%
21 May 2026	6%
22 May 2026	6%
23 May 2026	7%
24 May 2026	6%
25 May 2026	7%
26 May 2026	6%
27 May 2026	7%
28 May 2026	8%
29 May 2026	8%
30 May 2026	10%
31 May 2026	8%
1 Jun 2026	11%
2 Jun 2026	28%
3 Jun 2026	29%
4 Jun 2026	30%
5 Jun 2026	28%
6 Jun 2026	31%
7 Jun 2026	31%
8 Jun 2026	33%
9 Jun 2026	31%
10 Jun 2026	33%
11 Jun 2026	34%
12 Jun 2026	14%
13 Jun 2026	15%
14 Jun 2026	15%
15 Jun 2026	12%
16 Jun 2026	13%
17 Jun 2026	8%
18 Jun 2026	8%
19 Jun 2026	9%
20 Jun 2026	8%
21 Jun 2026	10%
22 Jun 2026	10%
23 Jun 2026	15%
24 Jun 2026	16%
25 Jun 2026	15%
26 Jun 2026	16%
27 Jun 2026	15%
28 Jun 2026	17%
29 Jun 2026	17%
30 Jun 2026	30%
1 Jul 2026	32%
2 Jul 2026	33%
3 Jul 2026	31%
4 Jul 2026	33%
5 Jul 2026	32%
6 Jul 2026	31%
7 Jul 2026	33%
8 Jul 2026	34%
9 Jul 2026	18%
10 Jul 2026	19%
11 Jul 2026	20%
12 Jul 2026	18%
13 Jul 2026	20%
14 Jul 2026	24%
15 Jul 2026	24%
16 Jul 2026	23%
17 Jul 2026	26%
18 Jul 2026	25%
19 Jul 2026	26%
20 Jul 2026	26%
21 Jul 2026	29%
22 Jul 2026	28%
23 Jul 2026	26%
24 Jul 2026	29%
25 Jul 2026	29%
26 Jul 2026	30%
27 Jul 2026	30%
28 Jul 2026	28%
29 Jul 2026	29%
30 Jul 2026	33%
31 Jul 2026	31%
1 Aug 2026	31%
2 Aug 2026	32%
3 Aug 2026	33%
4 Aug 2026	55%
5 Aug 2026	56%
6 Aug 2026	58%
7 Aug 2026	67%
8 Aug 2026	66%
9 Aug 2026	65%
10 Aug 2026	66%
11 Aug 2026	65%
12 Aug 2026	85%
13 Aug 2026	84%
14 Aug 2026	78%
15 Aug 2026	78%
16 Aug 2026	78%
17 Aug 2026	79%
18 Aug 2026	77%
19 Aug 2026	77%
20 Aug 2026	78%
21 Aug 2026	76%
22 Aug 2026	78%
23 Aug 2026	79%
24 Aug 2026	74%
25 Aug 2026	74%
26 Aug 2026	73%
27 Aug 2026	73%
28 Aug 2026	73%
29 Aug 2026	74%
30 Aug 2026	72%
31 Aug 2026	85%
1 Sep 2026	85%
2 Sep 2026	84%
3 Sep 2026	84%
4 Sep 2026	85%
5 Sep 2026	86%
6 Sep 2026	84%
7 Sep 2026	69%
8 Sep 2026	72%
9 Sep 2026	69%
10 Sep 2026	73%
11 Sep 2026	72%
12 Sep 2026	71%
13 Sep 2026	72%
14 Sep 2026	71%
15 Sep 2026	82%
16 Sep 2026	79%
17 Sep 2026	80%
18 Sep 2026	81%
19 Sep 2026	80%
20 Sep 2026	80%
21 Sep 2026	79%
22 Sep 2026	79%
23 Sep 2026	81%
24 Sep 2026	80%
25 Sep 2026	80%
26 Sep 2026	80%
27 Sep 2026	79%
28 Sep 2026	79%
29 Sep 2026	78%
30 Sep 2026	78%
1 Oct 2026	78%
2 Oct 2026	77%
3 Oct 2026	78%
4 Oct 2026	79%
5 Oct 2026	79%
6 Oct 2026	84%
7 Oct 2026	82%
8 Oct 2026	77%
9 Oct 2026	79%
10 Oct 2026	77%
11 Oct 2026	79%
12 Oct 2026	78%
13 Oct 2026	86%
14 Oct 2026	85%
15 Oct 2026	86%
16 Oct 2026	84%
17 Oct 2026	84%
18 Oct 2026	84%
19 Oct 2026	83%
20 Oct 2026	83%

Runs where each grouping reaches 62 seats

Ticks: biggest poll-day moves.

Numbers

Date	ACT + National + NZ First + Opportunity	Green + Labour + Opportunity + Te Pāti Māori	ACT + National + NZ First	Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori	Moved with
27 Jan 2026	–	–	65%	30%
28 Jan 2026	–	–	66%	30%
29 Jan 2026	–	–	65%	30%
30 Jan 2026	–	–	58%	37%
31 Jan 2026	–	–	56%	38%
1 Feb 2026	–	–	61%	35%
2 Feb 2026	–	–	58%	35%
3 Feb 2026	–	–	65%	30%
4 Feb 2026	–	–	65%	30%
5 Feb 2026	–	–	64%	31%
6 Feb 2026	–	–	64%	31%
7 Feb 2026	–	–	65%	31%
8 Feb 2026	–	–	66%	29%
9 Feb 2026	–	–	61%	33%
10 Feb 2026	–	–	63%	32%
11 Feb 2026	–	–	62%	33%
12 Feb 2026	–	–	64%	31%
13 Feb 2026	–	–	64%	32%
14 Feb 2026	–	–	62%	32%
15 Feb 2026	–	–	61%	34%
16 Feb 2026	–	–	68%	27%
17 Feb 2026	–	–	70%	25%
18 Feb 2026	–	–	66%	29%
19 Feb 2026	–	–	67%	28%
20 Feb 2026	–	–	68%	27%
21 Feb 2026	–	–	69%	27%
22 Feb 2026	–	–	69%	26%
23 Feb 2026	–	–	69%	27%
24 Feb 2026	–	–	70%	26%
25 Feb 2026	–	–	63%	31%
26 Feb 2026	–	–	61%	34%
27 Feb 2026	–	–	61%	34%
28 Feb 2026	–	–	65%	31%
1 Mar 2026	–	–	62%	34%
2 Mar 2026	–	–	61%	34%
3 Mar 2026	–	–	61%	33%
4 Mar 2026	–	–	60%	34%
5 Mar 2026	–	–	60%	35%
6 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	39%
7 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	40%
8 Mar 2026	–	–	55%	40%
9 Mar 2026	–	–	57%	37%
10 Mar 2026	–	–	53%	42%
11 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	39%
12 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	41%
13 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	41%
14 Mar 2026	–	–	55%	39%
15 Mar 2026	–	–	56%	39%
16 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	40%
17 Mar 2026	–	–	55%	40%
18 Mar 2026	–	–	56%	40%
19 Mar 2026	–	–	56%	38%
20 Mar 2026	–	–	58%	37%
21 Mar 2026	–	–	56%	39%
22 Mar 2026	–	–	57%	38%
23 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	41%
24 Mar 2026	–	–	52%	41%
25 Mar 2026	–	–	51%	43%
26 Mar 2026	–	–	53%	42%
27 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	41%
28 Mar 2026	–	–	53%	42%
29 Mar 2026	–	–	52%	44%
30 Mar 2026	–	–	54%	40%
31 Mar 2026	–	–	53%	42%
1 Apr 2026	–	–	54%	40%
2 Apr 2026	–	–	54%	40%
3 Apr 2026	–	–	53%	41%
4 Apr 2026	–	–	51%	43%
5 Apr 2026	–	–	54%	40%
6 Apr 2026	–	–	53%	41%
7 Apr 2026	–	–	68%	27%	Curia Market Research poll
8 Apr 2026	–	–	69%	26%
9 Apr 2026	–	–	65%	29%
10 Apr 2026	–	–	69%	26%
11 Apr 2026	–	–	68%	26%
12 Apr 2026	–	–	68%	27%
13 Apr 2026	–	–	68%	28%
14 Apr 2026	–	–	67%	28%
15 Apr 2026	–	–	67%	28%
16 Apr 2026	–	–	68%	26%
17 Apr 2026	–	–	65%	29%
18 Apr 2026	–	–	65%	30%
19 Apr 2026	–	–	53%	41%
20 Apr 2026	–	–	51%	43%
21 Apr 2026	–	–	52%	42%
22 Apr 2026	–	–	50%	44%
23 Apr 2026	–	–	51%	43%
24 Apr 2026	–	–	52%	42%
25 Apr 2026	–	–	52%	41%
26 Apr 2026	–	–	52%	41%
27 Apr 2026	–	–	54%	40%
28 Apr 2026	–	–	51%	42%
29 Apr 2026	–	–	53%	40%
30 Apr 2026	–	–	51%	43%
1 May 2026	–	–	54%	39%
2 May 2026	–	–	52%	40%
3 May 2026	–	–	51%	41%
4 May 2026	–	–	52%	40%
5 May 2026	–	–	52%	38%
6 May 2026	–	–	52%	40%
7 May 2026	–	–	50%	40%
8 May 2026	–	–	50%	40%
9 May 2026	–	–	52%	38%
10 May 2026	–	–	51%	39%
11 May 2026	–	–	50%	39%
12 May 2026	–	–	55%	38%
13 May 2026	–	–	54%	37%
14 May 2026	–	–	59%	33%
15 May 2026	–	–	59%	34%
16 May 2026	–	–	62%	30%
17 May 2026	–	–	61%	32%
18 May 2026	–	–	61%	32%
19 May 2026	–	–	57%	35%
20 May 2026	–	–	60%	34%
21 May 2026	–	–	59%	34%
22 May 2026	–	–	59%	34%
23 May 2026	–	–	59%	33%
24 May 2026	–	–	61%	31%
25 May 2026	–	–	59%	32%
26 May 2026	–	–	58%	35%
27 May 2026	–	–	59%	32%
28 May 2026	–	–	60%	32%
29 May 2026	–	–	57%	36%
30 May 2026	–	–	58%	33%
31 May 2026	–	–	60%	31%
1 Jun 2026	–	–	58%	32%
2 Jun 2026	–	–	69%	16%	Roy Morgan poll
3 Jun 2026	–	–	68%	17%
4 Jun 2026	–	–	68%	17%
5 Jun 2026	–	–	67%	18%
6 Jun 2026	–	–	67%	17%
7 Jun 2026	–	–	69%	16%
8 Jun 2026	–	–	67%	16%
9 Jun 2026	–	–	67%	17%
10 Jun 2026	–	–	66%	17%
11 Jun 2026	–	–	65%	18%
12 Jun 2026	–	–	63%	26%
13 Jun 2026	–	–	64%	25%
14 Jun 2026	–	–	63%	26%
15 Jun 2026	–	–	63%	28%
16 Jun 2026	–	–	63%	27%
17 Jun 2026	–	–	58%	32%
18 Jun 2026	–	–	57%	33%
19 Jun 2026	–	–	57%	34%
20 Jun 2026	–	–	57%	33%
21 Jun 2026	–	–	57%	33%
22 Jun 2026	–	–	58%	33%
23 Jun 2026	–	–	53%	34%
24 Jun 2026	–	–	53%	34%
25 Jun 2026	–	–	52%	34%
26 Jun 2026	–	–	52%	35%
27 Jun 2026	–	–	52%	36%
28 Jun 2026	–	–	53%	34%
29 Jun 2026	–	–	49%	36%
30 Jun 2026	–	–	57%	23%	Roy Morgan poll
1 Jul 2026	–	–	56%	23%
2 Jul 2026	–	–	54%	24%
3 Jul 2026	–	–	55%	24%
4 Jul 2026	–	–	55%	23%
5 Jul 2026	–	–	56%	23%
6 Jul 2026	–	–	55%	24%
7 Jul 2026	–	–	55%	24%
8 Jul 2026	–	–	54%	24%
9 Jul 2026	–	–	56%	29%
10 Jul 2026	–	–	57%	27%
11 Jul 2026	–	–	59%	26%
12 Jul 2026	–	–	57%	28%
13 Jul 2026	–	–	57%	29%
14 Jul 2026	–	–	57%	26%
15 Jul 2026	–	–	60%	24%
16 Jul 2026	–	–	58%	25%
17 Jul 2026	–	–	57%	24%
18 Jul 2026	–	–	57%	25%
19 Jul 2026	–	–	59%	24%
20 Jul 2026	–	–	57%	24%
21 Jul 2026	–	–	56%	24%
22 Jul 2026	–	–	56%	25%
23 Jul 2026	–	–	58%	25%
24 Jul 2026	–	–	60%	21%
25 Jul 2026	–	–	61%	21%
26 Jul 2026	–	–	58%	22%
27 Jul 2026	–	–	59%	23%
28 Jul 2026	–	–	59%	22%
29 Jul 2026	–	–	60%	22%
30 Jul 2026	–	–	59%	21%
31 Jul 2026	–	–	60%	22%
1 Aug 2026	–	–	57%	23%
2 Aug 2026	–	–	58%	22%
3 Aug 2026	–	–	58%	22%
4 Aug 2026	86%	40%	55%	12%
5 Aug 2026	85%	40%	55%	13%
6 Aug 2026	84%	42%	53%	13%
7 Aug 2026	90%	38%	58%	8%
8 Aug 2026	89%	36%	59%	9%
9 Aug 2026	90%	37%	58%	9%
10 Aug 2026	91%	36%	60%	8%
11 Aug 2026	89%	37%	58%	9%
12 Aug 2026	92%	53%	43%	6%	Verian poll
13 Aug 2026	92%	53%	43%	7%
14 Aug 2026	90%	47%	48%	8%
15 Aug 2026	91%	48%	47%	8%
16 Aug 2026	91%	47%	49%	8%
17 Aug 2026	91%	47%	48%	7%
18 Aug 2026	90%	45%	50%	8%
19 Aug 2026	91%	48%	47%	8%
20 Aug 2026	91%	47%	49%	8%
21 Aug 2026	90%	48%	48%	9%
22 Aug 2026	90%	45%	50%	8%
23 Aug 2026	90%	47%	48%	8%
24 Aug 2026	91%	46%	50%	8%
25 Aug 2026	90%	44%	52%	9%
26 Aug 2026	90%	44%	51%	9%
27 Aug 2026	89%	44%	52%	9%
28 Aug 2026	89%	44%	51%	9%
29 Aug 2026	89%	45%	50%	10%
30 Aug 2026	90%	43%	52%	8%
31 Aug 2026	93%	48%	47%	6%
1 Sep 2026	94%	47%	48%	5%
2 Sep 2026	93%	47%	49%	6%
3 Sep 2026	93%	46%	49%	6%
4 Sep 2026	92%	48%	47%	7%
5 Sep 2026	93%	48%	48%	6%
6 Sep 2026	93%	48%	48%	6%
7 Sep 2026	92%	35%	61%	7%	Curia Market Research poll
8 Sep 2026	92%	35%	61%	7%
9 Sep 2026	91%	37%	59%	8%
10 Sep 2026	92%	36%	59%	7%
11 Sep 2026	91%	38%	57%	7%
12 Sep 2026	92%	36%	60%	7%
13 Sep 2026	90%	38%	57%	8%
14 Sep 2026	92%	37%	59%	6%
15 Sep 2026	93%	45%	51%	6%
16 Sep 2026	89%	52%	44%	8%
17 Sep 2026	90%	50%	46%	8%
18 Sep 2026	90%	54%	42%	8%
19 Sep 2026	90%	52%	45%	9%
20 Sep 2026	89%	52%	44%	9%
21 Sep 2026	89%	52%	44%	9%
22 Sep 2026	89%	52%	44%	10%
23 Sep 2026	91%	52%	43%	8%
24 Sep 2026	90%	52%	45%	8%
25 Sep 2026	91%	52%	45%	8%
26 Sep 2026	89%	54%	42%	10%
27 Sep 2026	89%	52%	44%	9%
28 Sep 2026	90%	51%	45%	9%
29 Sep 2026	90%	49%	47%	9%
30 Sep 2026	90%	50%	46%	9%
1 Oct 2026	91%	48%	47%	7%
2 Oct 2026	88%	49%	47%	10%
3 Oct 2026	90%	51%	46%	9%
4 Oct 2026	90%	50%	46%	9%
5 Oct 2026	90%	51%	45%	8%
6 Oct 2026	89%	58%	37%	9%
7 Oct 2026	88%	60%	36%	10%
8 Oct 2026	88%	53%	42%	9%
9 Oct 2026	89%	53%	42%	8%
10 Oct 2026	89%	52%	44%	10%
11 Oct 2026	89%	52%	44%	9%
12 Oct 2026	88%	54%	41%	10%
13 Oct 2026	92%	57%	38%	6%
14 Oct 2026	91%	58%	38%	8%
15 Oct 2026	91%	56%	39%	7%
16 Oct 2026	89%	58%	37%	9%
17 Oct 2026	88%	59%	37%	10%
18 Oct 2026	90%	60%	36%	8%
19 Oct 2026	89%	58%	37%	10%
20 Oct 2026	90%	56%	39%	8%

Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.