Wellington Bays
Uncertain
One Curia poll of 400 voters for the Taxpayers' Union, in September, had Green and Labour level on the electorate vote.
Source: Curia Market Research poll for Taxpayers' Union. It moved the estimate towards Labour.
- 2023 winner
- Green
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 8.9% of the top two candidates’ votes (2,717 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 4.4% (at least 1,359 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- GreenAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 84%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Nicole McKeeList MP | ACT |
| Julie Anne GenterMP for Rongotai · won Rongotai 2023 | Green |
| Craig Renney | Labour |
| Liam Anderson | Money Free Party NZ |
| Karunā Muthu | National |
| Gerald Warner | NZ First |
| Kayla Kingdon-Bebb | Opportunity |
| Donald DS McDonald | Independent |
| Bruce Welsh | Independent |
Seat record
- Predecessor seat
- Rongotai
- Held since
- Green since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 1 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 6.2 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Green 3.9 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Green | 2,717 | Green |
| 2020 | Labour | 19,207 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 10,900 | Labour |
| 2014 | Labour | 9,617 | National |
| 2011 | Labour | 9,047 | Labour |
| 2008 | Labour | 9,020 | Labour |
| 2005 | Labour | 12,638 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 11,493 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 12,928 | Labour |
| 1996 | Labour | 7,700 | National |