Wairarapa
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 7.5% of the top two candidates’ votes (2,816 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 3.7% (at least 1,409 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 60%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Victoria Ale | Alliance Party |
| Lauren Craig | Green |
| Kieran McAnultyList MP · won here 2020 · runner-up here 2014, 2017, 2023 | Labour |
| Mike ButterickMP for Wairarapa · won here 2023 · runner-up here 2020 | National |
| Ron Mark | NZ First |
| Barry Young | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party |
| Matt Shepherd | Opportunity |
| Jared Warren Gardner | Te Pāti Hira |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 1.8 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 5.0 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 2,816 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 6,545 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 2,872 | National |
| 2014 | National | 6,771 | National |
| 2011 | National | 7,135 | National |
| 2008 | National | 6,758 | National |
| 2005 | National | 2,752 | National |
| 2002 | Labour | 6,372 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 3,033 | Labour |
| 1996 | National | 7,867 | National |