Te Tai Tonga
Uncertain
One Curia poll of 500 voters for Whakaata Māori, 14–24 Sept: Green 16%, Labour 30%, Te Pāti Māori 17%, sitting MP (now an independent) 15%, undecided 17%.
Source: Curia Market Research poll for Whakaata Māori. It moved the estimate towards Labour.
- 2023 winner
- Te Pāti Māori (Tākuta Ferris)
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 12.4% of the top two candidates’ votes (2,824 votes)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 85%
- Roll
- Māori
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Tania Lee Henare | Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party |
| Lisa Te Morenga | Green |
| Mananui Ramsden | Labour |
| Christine Fisher | New Zealand Loyal |
| Lisa Murch | Te Pāti Māori |
| Tākuta FerrisIndependent MP for Te Tai Tonga · won here 2023 (Te Pāti Māori) · runner-up here 2020 (Te Pāti Māori) | Independent |
Seat record
- Held since
- Tākuta Ferris (elected for Te Pāti Māori), 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 1 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 8.6 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Te Pāti Māori 17.9 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Te Pāti Māori | 2,824 | Labour |
| 2020 | Labour | 6,855 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 4,676 | Labour |
| 2014 | Labour | 3,554 | Labour |
| 2011 | Labour | 1,475 | Labour |
| 2008 | Te Pāti Māori | 1,049 | Labour |
| 2005 | Labour | 2,503 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 8,052 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 4,522 | Labour |
| 1996 | NZ First | 285 | Labour |