Te Tai Hauāuru
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
One Curia Market Research poll for Whakaata Māori, 500 voters, 14–24 September 2026, moved the estimate towards Te Pāti Māori.
- 2023 winner
- Te Pāti Māori
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 39.1% of the top two candidates’ votes (9,162 votes)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- Te Pāti MāoriAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 73%
- Roll
- Māori
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
If this seat changes hands
Estimated gap: 10.3 points, the 2023 margin (a share of the winner’s and runner-up’s votes) moved by the change in the polls since.
| Grouping | Now | If Labour wins |
|---|---|---|
| ACT + National + NZ First + Opportunity | 67 | 67 |
| Green + Labour + Opportunity + Te Pāti Māori | 62 | 61 |
| ACT + National + NZ First | 60 | 60 |
| Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori | 55 | 54 |
| Parliament | 122 | 121 |
| Majority | 62 | 61 |
Seat counts if the election were today. They say nothing about who would agree to work together.
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Te Pūoho Kātene | Labour |
| Coral Raukawa | National |
| Debbie Ngarewa-PackerMP for Te Tai Hauāuru · won here 2023 · runner-up here 2020 | Te Pāti Māori |
Seat record
- Held since
- Te Pāti Māori since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 1 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 10.9 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Te Pāti Māori 23.4 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Te Pāti Māori | 9,162 | Labour |
| 2020 | Labour | 1,053 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 1,039 | Labour |
| 2014 | Labour | 1,554 | Labour |
| 2011 | Te Pāti Māori | 3,221 | Labour |
| 2008 | Te Pāti Māori | 7,817 | Labour |
| 2005 | Te Pāti Māori | 5,113 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 8,657 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 6,233 | Labour |
| 1996 | NZ First | 4,961 | NZ First |