Tāmaki Makaurau
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
One Curia Market Research poll for Whakaata Māori, 500 voters, 5–15 October 2026, moved the estimate towards Labour. The poll had Oriini Kaipara (Te Pāti Māori) 33% and Kerrin Leoni (Labour) 31%.
- 2025 by-election winner
- Te Pāti Māori
- 2025 by-election runner-up
- Labour
- 2025 by-election margin
- 33.9% of the top two candidates’ votes (3,519 votes)
- 2025 by-election boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 49%
- Roll
- Māori
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
If this seat changes hands
Estimated gap: 1.2 points, the 2025 by-election margin (a share of the winner’s and runner-up’s votes) moved by the change in the polls since.
| Grouping | Now | If Te Pāti Māori wins |
|---|---|---|
| ACT + National + NZ First + Opportunity | 67 | 67 |
| Green + Labour + Opportunity + Te Pāti Māori | 62 | 63 |
| ACT + National + NZ First | 60 | 60 |
| Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori | 55 | 56 |
| Parliament | 122 | 123 |
| Majority | 62 | 62 |
Seat counts if the election were today. They say nothing about who would agree to work together.
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Florence Te Ohaere | Green |
| Kerrin Leoni | Labour |
| Oriini KaiparaMP for Tāmaki Makaurau · won the 2025 by-election | Te Pāti Māori |
Seat record
- Held since
- Te Pāti Māori since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 1 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 10.5 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Te Pāti Māori 9.1 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 by-election | Te Pāti Māori | 3,519 | — |
| 2023 | Te Pāti Māori | 42 | Labour |
| 2020 | Labour | 927 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 3,809 | Labour |
| 2014 | Labour | 1,462 | Labour |
| 2011 | Te Pāti Māori | 936 | Labour |
| 2008 | Te Pāti Māori | 7,540 | Labour |
| 2005 | Te Pāti Māori | 2,127 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 9,444 | Labour |