New Plymouth
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 18.4% of the top two candidates’ votes (6,991 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 9.2% (at least 3,496 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 71%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Amanda Clinton-Gohdes | Labour |
| David MacLeodMP for New Plymouth · won here 2023 | National |
| Sarah Lucas | Opportunity |
| Rusty Kane | Independent |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 1.7 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 4.3 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 6,991 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 2,555 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 7,733 | National |
| 2014 | National | 9,778 | National |
| 2011 | National | 4,270 | National |
| 2008 | National | 105 | National |
| 2005 | Labour | 5,439 | National |
| 2002 | Labour | 14,930 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 15,092 | Labour |
| 1996 | Labour | 11,533 | National |