Nelson
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
- 2023 winner
- Labour
- 2023 runner-up
- National
- 2023 margin
- 0.1% of the top two candidates’ votes (26 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- At least 14 voters
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 78%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Chris Baillie | ACT |
| Rohan O'Neill-Stevens | Green |
| Rachel BoyackMP for Nelson · won here 2020, 2023 · runner-up here 2017 | Labour |
| Blair Cameronrunner-up here 2023 | National |
| Julian Crawford | New Zealand Loyal |
| Jodie Kuntzsch | Opportunity |
| Bruce Dyer | Progressive Party of Aotearoa New Zealand |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- Labour, 2020
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 2 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.0 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Labour 2.6 points higher (2023, vs National)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Labour | 26 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 4,525 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 4,283 | Labour |
| 2014 | National | 7,605 | National |
| 2011 | National | 7,088 | National |
| 2008 | National | 8,471 | National |
| 2005 | National | 10,226 | Labour |
| 2002 | National | 4,232 | Labour |
| 1999 | National | 4,521 | Labour |
| 1996 | National | 12,424 | Labour |