Mt Roskill
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 5.3% of the top two candidates’ votes (1,564 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 2.6% (at least 783 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 65%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Yang Qu | ACT |
| Priyanka Deo | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand |
| Anjana Iyer | Green |
| Michael Philip Woodwon here 2017, 2020 · runner-up here 2023 | Labour |
| Carlos CheungMP for Mt Roskill · won here 2023 | National |
| Jamie Attenborough | Opportunity |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 1.9 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 6.5 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 1,564 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 13,853 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 6,898 | National |
| 2014 | Labour | 8,091 | National |
| 2011 | Labour | 7,271 | Labour |
| 2008 | Labour | 6,418 | Labour |
| 2005 | Labour | 9,895 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 13,715 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 9,707 | Labour |