Maungakiekie

Uncertain

In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.

2023 winner: National
2023 runner-up: Labour
2023 margin: 15.8% of the top two candidates’ votes (4,617 votes)
Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result: More than 7.8% (at least 2,309 voters)
2023 boundaries: Old
Assumed for 2026: NationalAssumed: held
Assumed winner’s share of runs: 66%
Roll: General

Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.

Winning majority by election

Estimated gap: 5.2 points, the 2023 margin (a share of the winner’s and runner-up’s votes) moved by the change in the polls since.

Grouping	Now	If Labour wins
ACT + National + NZ First + Opportunity	67	66
Green + Labour + Opportunity + Te Pāti Māori	62	62
ACT + National + NZ First	60	59
Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori	55	55
Parliament	122	121
Majority	62	61

Seat counts if the election were today. They say nothing about who would agree to work together.

Candidate	Party
Juan Alvarez de Lugo	ACT
Adam Powell	Green
Priyanca RadhakrishnanList MP · won here 2020 · runner-up here 2017, 2023	Labour
Greg FlemingMP for Maungakiekie · won here 2023	National
Keegan Langeveld	NZ First
Derrick Paull	Opportunity

Held since: National since 2023
Matched the country’s top party vote: 2 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
Party vote vs the country: 1.4 points per party on average, 2017–2023
Winning party: candidate vs party vote: National 2.5 points lower (2023, vs Labour)

By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.

Seat history

Year	Won by	Majority	Party vote
2023	National	4,617	National
2020	Labour	635	Labour
2017	National	2,157	Labour
2014	National	2,348	National
2011	National	3,021	National
2008	National	1,942	National
2005	Labour	6,450	Labour
2002	Labour	6,603	Labour
1999	Labour	2,512	Labour
1996	National	228	Labour